30, 31 March 2020 - Grandparent/grandchild interaction in the age of Coronavirus

Above: Canada Goose. Silver Creek Junction, Summit County, UT 30 March 2020.

Passing through.

Above: Duc. Silver Creek Junction. Summit County, UT. 30 March 2020.

Out and about on the Duc.

I-80 westbound. Let them truckers roll, 10-4.

Not Silicon Slopes, but, Silent Slopes. — in Silver Creek Junction, Utah.

 

DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Monday, 30 MARCH 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 8:07 PM).

176 (including 9 visitors) confirmed cases Summit County. Up 17 (11%) from yesterday. Utah cases 806, up 85 (12%) yesterday. Four Utah deaths, up two from yesterday.

Say, 10x cases, is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 1760 Summit County contagions today (10 x 176 = 1760).

Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 4.4% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%.

Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 1.2% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 1.2%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 2.1 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .0000525% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand.

Summit County officials warn of exponential growth of contagion, but, hope to "flatten" the growth curve via aggressive, stay at home, physical distancing policies. Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers could be a function of lagging testing, success of the Country's disease suppression strategy, or a combination of both.

Above: Rockport State Park. 31 March 2020

Daily Three Miler.

Above: TIMDT and Drums. Iron Canyon. 31 March 2020.

Grandparent/grandchild interaction in the age of Coronavirus.

 

DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Monday, 31 MARCH 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 1:30 PM).

181 (including 9 visitors) confirmed cases Summit County. Up 5 (3%) from yesterday. Utah cases 887, up 81 (10%) from yesterday. Five Utah deaths, up one from yesterday.

Say, 10x cases, is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 1810 Summit County contagions today (10 x 181 = 1810).

Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 4.5% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%.

Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 1.2% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 1.2%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 2.2 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .000055% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand.

Summit County officials warn of exponential growth of contagion, but, hope to "flatten" the growth curve via aggressive, stay at home, physical distancing policies. Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers could be a function of lagging testing, success of the Country's disease suppression strategy, or a combination of both.