Notes from India (7) - Modi with the wind at his back.... for now.

Above: Narendra Modi, Prime Minister India. Jodhpur, India. 11 April 2024.

Images of Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, are ubiquitous here in Jodhpur, and elsewhere, during our April 2024 travels to India. India's eighteenth national election is set for 01 June 2024 and the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP, Modi's party, is expected to remain dominant with Modi entering his third term as Prime Minister. Modi has been in office for ten years and has a current popularity rating in the polls of 75%.

Modi's support is greater in north India, where the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is dominant, than in Southern India, where various other parties, including the Indian National Congress and Communist Party of India (M) hold sway.

Modi has succeeded in entering India's popular consciousness as few other Prime Ministers have done, save perhaps, Indira Gandhi. One pundit has referred to Modi as a combination of "king, high priest, and Mr. Rogers." Modi is beyond politics. On social media he has inserted himself into people's lives almost as a family member.

As can be imagined when a politician gains so much power, Modi has pushed India into a form of electoral autocracy. As he uses the power of government to harass his political enemies, Joe Biden looks like a piker compared to Modi. In February, the BJP's principal opposition party, Congress Party, had its bank accounts closed with the BJP controlled Indian government demanding immediate payment of overdue tax payments. The accounts have since been reopened. In March, Delhi's Chief Minister, Congress Party member, was held for six days on corruption charges. He has since been released. These two actions received a frosty response from the high and mighty United States, which is rich considering FBI intimidation of mom's challenging left leaning school boards, FBI infiltration of Catholic Churches and lawfare strong arm tactics used to slow down Republican Donald Trump's 2024 campaign for the presidency. The BJP has also cracked down on a testy Indian media. This is opposite to the US where the media seems to be a lap dog for the ruling Democrats.

If there is a perception by Republicans that US elections may be free, but not fair, so the accusation is made of Indian presidential elections. The BJP, benefiting from large campaign donations, makes grist of other Indian political parties, always coming up with something to keep them on the defensive. One pundit, Andy Mukerjee, based in Hong Kong, says India's electoral process is "on the slippery slope to becoming a closed electoral autocracy." There is no clash of ideas happening in India today as the BJP has been successful in keeping other parties on the run with legal battles and corruption accusations.

While the BJP party is a hotbed of Hindu supremacy, Mody himself is usually quiet on this topic. However, he can stir the coals of secular conflict when he wants to, particularly as he considers his strong electoral position. In January he attended the opening ceremony of the newly constricted Ayoda Hindu Temple which had, notoriously, been constructed on the site of a mosque destroyed by Hindu militants in 1992. Modi's visit to the temple did not sit well with India's Muslim community, 15% of India's population.

Modi also doesn't see the need to stoke his BJP, Hindu nationalist leaning base. He's confident that his core supporters will be with him. Modi concentrates on winning alliances with other factions of the Indian cultural matrix. Modi is good at being all things to all people. India is made up of a complex matrix of class, caste, language and religion. A clever leader can appeal the oft conflicting needs of all factions where in such a large, populous country it is hard for, say, Sikh's, in Punjab to keep track of Modi's promises to communists in Kerala.

As India powers forward with a sustainable 5% GDP growth rate, the people seem oblivious to Modi's political machinations. Modi's is a powerful formula. Delegitimize the media. Starve opposition parties of funding and open investigations on them. And, promise, to all India's caste, class, religious, and language factions, the world.

Modi now owns all the issues: economy, national security, climate, jobs and corruption. The wind seems to be at his back, but at what cost as India's democracy seems to be slipping away.