Picto Diary - 01, 02 April 2020 - The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly

Above: Rockport State Park. The Good (Clint Eastwood), The Bad (Eli Wallach), and The Ugly (Lee Van Cleef). 1 April 2020.

Daily Three Miler. Summit County Quarantine.

Social distancing in the age of Coronavirus.

DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Monday, 01 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 1:50 PM).
204 (including 9 visitors) confirmed cases Summit County. Up 23 (12.7%) from yesterday. Utah cases 1012, up 125 (14%) from yesterday. Seven Utah deaths, up two from yesterday.

Say, 10x cases, is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 2040 Summit County contagions today (10 x 204 = 2040).

Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 5.0% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%.

Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 1.2% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 1.2%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 2.5 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .000063% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand.

Summit County officials warn of exponential growth of contagion, but, hope to "flatten" the growth curve via aggressive, stay at home, physical distancing policies. Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date could be a function of lagging testing, success of the Country's disease suppression strategy, or a combination of both.

Above: Five Images. Summit County Quarantine. Daily Three Miler. Echo. 02 April 2020.

Extreme physical distancing in Summit County, away from Park City trail congestion.

Rail Trail; Pioneer Trail; Witches' Rocks; Bishop walks Witches Rocks trail; Union Pacific - Building America; Stone dam built by Mormons in 1857 to create lake to block entry of Albert Sydney Johnson's 2000 Federal regulars into Salt Lake City during the Utah War.

DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Thursday, 02 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 4:40 PM).
215 (including 11 visitors) confirmed cases Summit County. Up 11 (5.4%) from yesterday. Utah cases 1074, up 62 (6.5%) from yesterday. Seven Utah deaths, no change from yesterday.

Say, 10x cases, is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 2150 Summit County contagions today (10 x 215 = 2150).

Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 5.4% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%.

Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 1.2% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 1.2%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 2.6 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .000065% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand.

Before issuing stay at home, social distancing guidelines on 25 March 2020, Summit County officials warned of exponential growth of contagion if mitigation actions were not taken. Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date, therefore, must be a function of lagging testing, success of the Country's disease suppression strategy, or a combination of both.