Picto Diary - 04 April 2020 - Tin Cans

Above: Three Images. Rockport State Park. 04 April 2020.

Summit County Quarantine.
Daily 3 miler. Extreme physical distancing... even for cars.

Above: Duc at Echo Canyon. 04 April 2020.

Summit County Quarantine.

Out and about on the Duc.

Extreme "HK maintaining physical distance" training. Plenty of tin cans.

 

DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Friday, 04 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 6:40 PM).
230 confirmed cases Summit County. Up 8 (3.6%) from yesterday. Utah cases 1428, up 152 (11.9%) from yesterday. Eight Utah deaths, up one from yesterday.

Say, 10x cases, is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 2300 Summit County contagions today (10 x 230 = 2300).

Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 5.8% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%.

Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 2.5% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 2.5%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 5.8 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .000145% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand.

Summit County has 14 hospitalizations, up 2 from yesterday. Utah, 117 hospitalizations, up 11 from yesterday.

Before issuing stay at home, physical distancing guidelines on 25 March 2020, Summit County officials warned of exponential growth of contagion if mitigation actions were not taken. Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date, therefore, must be a function of lagging testing, success of the Country's disease suppression strategy, or a combination of both.

Note: Case counts are cumulative. Cures are not taken off the number. It can be assumed that there have been some cures. Therefore, the case count number may be overstated. We are informed by The Councilman that the state will begin reporting actual, outstanding cases, net of cures, in the next few days.

Addendum:

Hope you two stay well and safe and happily engaged in all your interesting endeavors. Margaret’s a creative genius with her knitting. Nice sighting of the bald eagle; they are such majestic creatures. We’ve become addicted to watching the ones that show up here for the winters and fish in the stream.

Survival,
Hatch, UT