Picto Diary - 05, 06 April 2020 - Witches Rocks Trail
Above: B1B and Mynduveroan. Rockport State Park 05 April 2020
Summit County Quarantine. Extreme physical distancing. Extreme social engagement.
Above: Wanship Dam. Rockport State Park. Summit County Quarantine. 05 April 2020.
Out and about on the Duc.
Duc at the dam, down by the river.
Dam hike.
Extreme physical distancing. 0 social engagement. — at Rockport State Park.
DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Saturday, 05 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 6:00 PM).
256 confirmed cases Summit County. Up 26 (11.3%) from yesterday. Utah cases 1605, up 177 (12.6%) from yesterday. Nine Utah deaths, up one from yesterday.
Say, 10x cases, is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 2560 Summit County contagions today (10 x 256 = 2560).
Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 6.4% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%. Since no downward adjustment to confirmed cases is made to account for death or resolutions, we can assume that the adjusted contagions number is probably overstated. Notwithstanding, we'll stick with the current, likely overstated, numbers to be conservative. We are informed that the state will be reporting "active cases" ie. cases net of cure or death, imminently.
Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 2.9% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 2.9%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 7.4 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .000185% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand souls.
Summit County has 16 hospitalizations, up 2 from yesterday. Utah, 124 hospitalizations, up 7 from yesterday.
Before issuing stay at home, physical distancing guidelines on 25 March 2020, Summit County officials warned of exponential growth of contagion if mitigation actions were not taken. Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date, therefore, must be a function of lagging testing, success of the Country's disease suppression strategy, or a combination of both.
Above: TIMDT at Witches Rocks Trail. Echo, Summit County, UT 06 April 2020.
Daily three miler.
Witches Rocks trail.
Summit County Quarantine.
Extreme physical distancing. Spousal social interaction.
Note: Witches Rocks to the right in image.
Above: Bishop on Witches Rocks Trail. Echo, Summit County, UT 06 April 2020.
Daily three miler.
Witches Rocks trail.
Summit County Quarantine.
Extreme physical distancing.
Spousal social interaction.
Above: Old Echo Church. Echo, Summit County, UT. 06 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine.
DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Monday 06 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 1:45 PM).
260 confirmed cases Summit County, up 4 (1.6%) from yesterday. Utah cases 1675 up 70 (4.4%) from yesterday. Thirteen Utah deaths, up four from yesterday.
Say, 10x cases, is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 2600 Summit County contagions today (10 x 260 = 2600).
Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 6.5% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%. Since no downward adjustment to confirmed cases is made to account for death or cures, we can assume that the adjusted contagions number is probably overstated. Notwithstanding, we'll stick with the current, likely overstated, numbers to be conservative. We are informed that the state will be reporting "active cases" ie. cases net of cure or death, imminently.
Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 2.9% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 2.9%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 7.4 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .000185% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand souls.
Summit County has 20 hospitalizations, up 4 from yesterday. Utah, 138 hospitalizations, up 14 from yesterday.
Before issuing stay at home, physical distancing guidelines on 25 March 2020, Summit County officials warned of exponential growth of contagion if mitigation actions were not taken. Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date, therefore, must be a function of lagging testing, success of the Country's disease suppression strategy, or a combination of both.
Note: LSDM colleague reports talking to an "official" today who says Summit County stats aberrant in that majority of cases are ages 22 to 40, equally divided between male and female. Also reports that Summit County Stay at Home health order is to be extended two weeks to 01 May 2020.