Picto Diary - 07, 08 April 2020 - Sheep

Above: Sheep. Coalville, UT. 07 April 2020.

Summit County Quarantine.

Daily Three Miler. Rail Trail.

Ewe lamb, ewe lamb, ewe lamb....
Ewe lamb, ewe lamb, ewe lamb....

Above: Duc faced toward Park City Mountain ski area. 07 April 2020.

Summit County Quarantine.

Out and about on the Duc.

DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Tuesday 07 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 5:45 PM).
265 confirmed cases Summit County, up 5 (1.9%) from yesterday. Utah cases 1738 up 63 (3.8%) from yesterday. Thirteen Utah deaths, no change from yesterday.

Say, 10x cases, is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 2650 Summit County contagions today (10 x 265 = 2650).

Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 6.6% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%.

Since no downward adjustment to confirmed cases is made to account for death or cures, we can assume that the adjusted contagions number is probably overstated. Notwithstanding, we'll stick with the current, likely overstated, numbers to be conservative. We are informed that the state will be reporting "active cases" ie. cases net of cure or death, imminently.

Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 2.9% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 2.9%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 7.7 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .0001925% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand souls. The 7.7 projected deaths number is unadjusted for age groupings. Since 60% of Summit County cases are in 25 to 45 age group, a cohort less inclined to suffer death from the virus, the 7.7 deaths number is probably overstated, at least by a factor of 2x.

Summit County has 21 hospitalizations, up 1 from yesterday. Utah, 148 hospitalizations, up 10 from yesterday.

Before issuing stay at home, physical distancing guidelines on 25 March 2020, Summit County officials warned of exponential growth of contagion if mitigation actions were not taken. Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date, therefore, must be a function of lagging testing, success of the Country's disease suppression strategy, or a combination of both.

Above: TIMDT. Rockport State Park. 08 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine.

TIMDT looking for a van, down by the river.

Above: Duc on Browns Canyon Road. 08 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine.

Out and about on the Duc.

Deer Valley, Bald Mountain in the distance. — in Peoa, Utah.

DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Wednesday 08 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 2:30 PM).

273 confirmed cases Summit County, up 8 (3.0%) from yesterday. Utah cases 1846 up 108 (3.8%) from yesterday. Thirteen Utah deaths, no change from yesterday and the day before.

Say, 10x cases, is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Say 10% of total cases reported to date are unreported cures. Means hypothetical 2460 Summit County contagions today (10 x 273 = 2730 x 0.9 = 2460.

Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 6.2% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%.

Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 2.9% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 2.9%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases and low senior contagion (senior contagion Summit County is only 11% of total cases), 3.3 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .0000825% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand souls.

Summit County has 21 hospitalizations, up 1 from yesterday. Utah, 148 hospitalizations, up 10 from yesterday.

Before issuing stay at home, physical distancing guidelines on 25 March 2020, Summit County officials warned of exponential growth of contagion if mitigation actions were not taken. Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date, or even the beginnings of a real decline in cases, therefore, must be a function of lagging testing, success of the County's disease suppression strategy, or a combination of both. Low daily new case growth adjusted against assumption of 10% cures suggests Summit County real outstanding cases may be at curve peak or on the decline.

More transparency in reporting "cures" could suggest case decline rate where discussion of reopening local economy should now be entertained. Why hold back?