Picto Diary - 09, 10 April 2020 - UP
Above: Echo to Henefer Historic Trail. Henefer, UT. 09 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine. Daily Three Miler.
Extreme physical distancing.
Margaret henifer
Summit County Quarantine.
Echo to Henifer Historic Pioneer trail, reeking of history.
Temple Mountain Camp, where Brigham Young holed up, sick with Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, 10 July 1847.
Weber Station, where Mormon Militia established a camp in the path of Albert Sydney Johnson's 2000 federal troops, come to give Brigham Young and the Mormons a comeuppance. Utah War, Late Summer, 1857. — with Margaret Taylor in Henefer, Utah.
Above: I-80 Sign. Echo to Henefer Historic Trail. 09 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine. Daily Three Miler.
Daily Three Miler.
Thomas Moran, in 1868, etched a lithograph of Witches Rocks (seen beyond the freeway sign).
Pioneer landmark. On the Weber River, two miles south of the turn west to cross the Wasatch, via Big Mountain, into the Valley of the Great Salt Lake. — at Witches Rocks.
Above: Cattle. Echo. 09 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine. Daily Three Miler.
Social distancing... from cows. — with Margaret Taylor in Echo, Utah.
DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Thursday 09 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 4:40 PM).
289 confirmed cases Summit County, up 16 (5.9%) from yesterday. County health director estimates 50 recoveries, so adjusted confirmed cases is 239.
Utah cases 1976 up 130 (7.0%) from yesterday. Thirteen Utah deaths, no change for the last three days.
Say, 10x cases is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 2390 Summit County contagions today (10 x 239 = 2390.
Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 6.0% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%.
Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 2.9% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 2.9%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 7 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .000175% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand souls.
Summit County has 24 hospitalizations, up 3 from yesterday. Utah, 168 hospitalizations, up 20 from yesterday.
Before issuing stay at home, physical distancing guidelines on 25 March 2020, Summit County officials warned of exponential growth of contagion if mitigation actions were not taken. Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date, or even the beginnings of a real decline in cases, therefore, must be a function of lagging testing, success of the County's disease suppression strategy, or a combination of both. Low daily new case growth adjusted against county health Director assumption of 50 cures to date means that Summit County real outstanding cases may be at curve peak or on the decline.
More transparency in reporting "cures" could suggest case decline rate where discussion of reopening local economy should now be entertained.
Coronavirus.Utah.Gov does not report or measure social costs of current Coronavirus mitigation strategies ie. suicides, domestic violence, increases in violent crime, poverty, depressed herd immunity to Coronavirus, unemployment or impact of constraints to individual freedom. State government reaction to Coronavirus seems to be singularly focissed on disease eradication while ignoring social and economic consequences of the disease. No consideration is given to doing both.
Above: Echo to Henefer Historic Trail. TIMDT and Maharajah. 10 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine. Daily Three Miler.
Above: UP headed uphill. Echo Canyon. 10 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine.
UP.
Essential Services.
Building America. —
Railroads are no longer a sexy industry. But, it gives me a charge to see a long freight train. There is a sense of reassurance seeing large scale movement of goods during a time when the nation seems to be on tenterhooks, its economy threatened by a universal pandemic business shut down.
I wave out of my car window at the engineer and he toots back.
I muse that my life is bracketed by train experiences. When I was a pre-teen my Dad would occasionally drive me down to the Provo train depot, and we'd watch the Denver and Rio Grande (D and RG) freights, pulled by steam locomotives, pass by. Today, towards the back end of my life, I sense the same thrill watching trains as I felt as a youngster.
Trains are only a minor contributor to my total travel experiences. But, I've had some great train rides during my life. Beijing to Irkutsk. Adelaide to Alice Spring. New Delhi to Calcutta. Salt Lake City to Denver. New York City to Washington, D.C. Not to mention three years daily commuting between Westport, CT and Grand Central Station in New York City and three years daily commuting by subway between Hiroo Station and Kasumagaseki Station in Tokyo, Japan.
Is it so bad? I like to watch trains!
.
DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Friday 10 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 6:45 PM).
296 confirmed cases Summit County, up 16 (2.4%) from yesterday. County health director estimated 08 April 50 recoveries; add 5 for last two days (my estimate) so adjusted confirmed cases is 296 - 55 = 241, up two from adjusted confirmed cases yesterday.
No Covid-19 deaths to date in Summit County.
Say, 10x cases is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 2410 Summit County contagions today (10 x 241 = 2410.
Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 6.0% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%.
Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 2.9% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 2.9%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 7 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .000175% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand souls. The death forecast number could be overstated since aged proportion of Summit County cases is disproportionately low at 11% of total cases.
Summit County has 24 hospitalizations, no change from yesterday.
Before issuing stay at home, physical distancing guidelines on 25 March 2020, Summit County officials warned of exponential growth of contagion if mitigation actions were not taken. Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date, or even the beginnings of a real decline in cases, therefore, must be a function of either bad modeling, lagging testing, success of the County's disease suppression strategy, or some combination of the three. Low daily new case growth adjusted against county health Director assumption of 55 cures to date means that Summit County real outstanding cases may be at curve peak or on the decline.
More transparency in reporting "cures" could suggest case decline rate where discussion of reopening local economy should now be entertained.
Coronavirus.Utah.Gov does not report or measure social costs of current Coronavirus mitigation strategies ie. suicides, domestic violence, increases in violent crime, poverty, depressed herd immunity to Coronavirus, unemployment or impact of constraints to individual freedom. State government reaction to Coronavirus seems to be singularly focused on disease eradication while ignoring social and economic consequences of the disease. Sadly, no consideration is given by government authorities to doing both.