Picto Diary - 10 August 2018 - Hoover Institution Retreat, Jackson Hole
Lanhee J. Chen, Hoover Institution.
Dems increasing momentum to demand single payer health care. Don't look for resolution to health care wars any time soon.
Pubs will push to keep preexisting condition provisions of Obamacare, but will move to shift Obamacare entitlement provisions (Medicare expansion etc.) into block grants to states. Also, Pubs will argue for expanded health saving accounts accessability.
We have a primary care challenge in US. US best at specialty cures. Not best at primary care. US Med students dis incented (sic) from primary care roles because of low pay (Medicare reimbursement).
Any Canadian needing serious specialized medical care uses "Buffalo [Seattle] Care."
David Brady, Hoover Institution
Impact of new political polarization:
1. Partisan voting.
2. Elections more competitive
3. Presidents are dividers, nor unifiers.
4. Partisans of both parties misperceive one another.
Election Prediction (after extensive big data analysis).
Pubs keep Senate. Dems narrowly win house. Next two years divided government.
Trump's tweets diminish potential positive impact of economic news on vote. — at Four Seasons Resort and Residences Jackson Hole.
Michael Auslin, Hoover Institution.
China has militarized the South China Sea, through which 70% of world trade passes.
China is the largest trading nation of virtually every country on earth. China has made itself vital to most developing nations...schools, loans...giving rise to quid pro quo..bases, radar institutions etc. Debt trap for borrowing nations. Can't repay? OK then, how about you letting us install a military air base on your soil?
The New Silk Road. Perception: Greatest developmental initiative since the Marshall Plan.
350K Chinese students at US universities. Few stay in US after graduation. All are quasi "agents" of Chinese government. Chinese students in US united by Chinese government sponsored Confucius Society present at all US universities.
US losing to China the battle for late stage R and D, patents, and AI.
Edward Lazear, Hoover Institution.
Economy. Things are pretty good. We (US) are best of G7.
China growth has slowed, but they are still on track to surpass US in GDP within the next 16 years.
Countries that spend a lot, tax a lot. These countries grow more slowly, work less, and form less capital...ultimately stall.
Aging population a concern for US. 1970 median age 28. 2050 median age will be 41.
People who go on disability stay on disability.
Job outlook grim for less educated young males.
Budgetary issues imply higher taxes in the future.
China tariff issue tempest in teapot. Imports from China to US 2.6% US GDP. Exports US to China 0.6% GDP. China exports to US 4.3% China GDP.
Canada and Mexico, not China, big potential losers in trade war with US.
Trump cutting of regulations is good. But, his refraining from introducing more regulations is having a greater positive impact on the economy.
Q and A
Q. (Bishop) In 2016 Obama and acolytes were warning that 1.5% GDP growth was "new normal" for US. Trump is now over 3% (4.1% last quarter). What happened?
A. Trump deserves credit. Roll back of regulations and tax reform. — at Four Seasons Resort and Residences Jackson Hole.
Kiron Skinner, Hoover Institution.
Trump. New era. Trump only one to listen to apprehensions ot people in the heartland. Trump used unsophisticated language that appealed.
Trump supporters caused a debate about American economy and role in the world. It will take an SOB like Trump to carry the debate forward. This necessary debate is an area where few other politicians have dared to tread.
Whatever happens to Trump, we won't ever be going back to pre election/status quo ante.
Trump has sparked a healthy NATO debate. At Trump's urging, five NATO countries, including Greece and Estonia, now pay over 2% GDP for defence.
Trump engages where other politicians fear to tread.
Trump listens to the people. We may not realize that many of our foreign policy decisions are made at Dunkin Donuts.
Q and A.
Q. I worry about Trump getting rolled by Putin. Russia is our most dangerous adversary.
A. Russia is not our most dangerous adversary. Every nation meddles in every other nation's elections and internal affairs. Reagan and Gorbachev had numerous one on ones where no notes were taken. Absurd to demand translator transcript of private meeting.
Q. Muslim assimilation.
A. Europe is having difficulty. America's assimilation process still works. It takes two or three generations to see the process work. Be patient.