Picto Diary - 11, 12 April 2020 - Goldeneye
Above: Two Images. Echo State Park. 11 April 2020
Summit County Quarantine.
Rail Trail and Echo Reservoir beach.
DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Saturday 11 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 2:45 PM).
300 confirmed cases Summit County, up 4 (1.4%) from yesterday. County health director estimated 08 April 50 recoveries; add 7 for last three days (my estimate) so adjusted confirmed cases is 300 - 57 = 243, up two from adjusted confirmed cases yesterday.
No Covid-19 deaths to date in Summit County.
Say, 10x cases is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 2430 Summit County contagions today (10 x 243 = 2430.
Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 6.1% County Contagion Rate (CCR) DiamonGoldeneye duck (male adult).
Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 2.9% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 2.9%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 7 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .000175% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand souls. The death forecast number could be overstated since aged proportion of Summit County cases is disproportionately low at 11% of total cases.
Summit County has 25 hospitalizations, up one from yesterday.
Before issuing stay at home, physical distancing guidelines on 25 March 2020, Summit County officials warned of exponential growth of contagion if mitigation actions were not taken.
Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date, or even the beginnings of a real decline in cases, therefore, must be a function of either bad modeling, lagging testing, success of the County's disease suppression strategy, or some combination of the three. Low daily new case growth adjusted against county health Director assumption (and my adjustment) of 57 cures to date means that Summit County real outstanding cases may be at curve peak or on the decline.
More transparency in reporting "cures" could suggest case decline rate where discussion of reopening local economy should now be entertained.
Coronavirus.Utah.Gov does not report or measure social costs of current Coronavirus mitigation strategies ie. suicides, domestic violence, increases in violent crime, poverty, depressed herd immunity to Coronavirus, unemployment or impact of constraints to individual freedom. State government reaction to Coronavirus seems to be singularly focussed on disease eradication while ignoring social and economic consequences of the disease. Sadly, no consideration appears to be given by government authorities to doing both.
Above: Treed kid. Rail Trail, Coalville, UT. 12 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine.
Extreme social distancing.
Above: Duc read out. 35 degrees. 12 April 2020
Summit County Quarantine.
Out and about on the Duc.
On the dam loop, 40 miles, it got as low as 32 degrees. Walked the Wanship Dam, Rockport State Park, notwithstanding. Unlike ice and snow, temperature need not be an inhibitor to motorcycle riding.
Above: Goldeneye Duck. Rockport Reservoir. Rockport State Park. Dam Walk. 12 April 2020
Summit County Quarantine.
Goldeneye Duck. After the bald eagle and the grosbeak, a third unusual bird sighting this Spring.
Though, for this bird, it might just be me. Before, I just wasn't looking. Researching the bird, I note that they are quite common on Utah lakes and reservoirs. Its not a coot. Of course, I need a better camera. I have one, but, haven't taken it out of the box.
DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT WUHAN VIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Sunday 12 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 2:45 PM).
304 confirmed cases Summit County, up 4 (1.3%) from yesterday. County health director estimated 08 April 50 recoveries; add 9 for last four days (my estimate) so adjusted confirmed cases is 304 - 59 = 245, up two from adjusted confirmed cases yesterday.
No Covid-19 deaths to date in Summit County.
Say, 10x cases is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 2450 Summit County contagions today (10 x 245 = 2450.
Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 6.1% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%.
Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 2.9% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 2.9%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 7 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .000175% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand souls. The death forecast number could be overstated since aged proportion of Summit County cases is disproportionately low at 11% of total cases.
Summit County has 25 hospitalizations, no change from yesterday.
Before issuing stay at home, physical distancing guidelines on 25 March 2020, Summit County officials warned of exponential growth of contagion if mitigation actions were not taken.
Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date, or even the beginnings of a real decline in cases, therefore, must be a function of either bad modeling, lagging testing, success of the County's disease suppression strategy, or some combination of the three. Low daily new case growth adjusted against county health Director assumption (and my adjustment) of 59 cures to date means that Summit County real outstanding cases may be at curve peak or on the decline.
More transparency in reporting "cures" could suggest case decline rate where discussion of reopening local economy should be entertained.
Coronavirus.Utah.Gov does not report or measure social costs of current Coronavirus mitigation strategies ie. suicides, domestic violence, increases in violent crime, poverty, depressed herd immunity to Coronavirus, unemployment or impact of constraints to individual freedom. State government reaction to Coronavirus seems to be singularly focused on disease eradication while ignoring social and economic consequences of the disease. Sadly, no consideration appears to be given by government authorities to doing both.