Picto Diary - 13, 14 April 2020 - Zombies?
Above: Bishop bugs bulls. Rail Trail. Wanship, UT. 13 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine.
Daily three miler. Rail Trail.
Bishop bugs bulls...from more than six feet away.
No humans anywhere.
35 degrees Fahrenheit.
Above: Horses. Rail Trail. Wanship, UT. 13 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine.
Daily three miler. Rail Trail.
Ignore the woman in red hat. Guy comin' up got food!
Extreme physical distancing from colt and mare.
35 degrees Fahrenheit. — with Margaret Taylor in Wanship, Utah.
Above: Duc at Cedar Point parking. Steve. Cedar Point hike. Rockport State Park. 13 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine.
Out and about on the Duc.
Cedar Point Trail
Extreme physical distancing.
32 degrees Fahrenheit
DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT WUHAN VIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Monday 13 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 10:00 PM).
306 confirmed cases Summit County, up 2 (0.7%) from yesterday. County health director estimated 08 April 50 recoveries; add 11 for last five days (my estimate) so adjusted confirmed cases is 306 - 61 = 245, same number as adjusted confirmed cases yesterday. This is first day since Summit County Quarantine order issued 25 March 2020 where there has been no increase in adjusted cases outstanding. Hopefully this is evidence of a peaking contagion curve for Summit County.
No Covid-19 deaths to date in Summit County.
Say, 10x cases is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 2450 Summit County contagions today (10 x 245 = 2450.
Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 6.1% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%.
Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 2.9% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 2.9%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 7 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .000175% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand souls. The death forecast number could be overstated since aged proportion of Summit County cases is disproportionately low at 11% of total cases.
Summit County has 26 hospitalizations, up one from yesterday.
Before issuing stay at home, physical distancing guidelines on 25 March 2020, Summit County officials warned of exponential growth of contagion if mitigation actions were not taken.
Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date, or even the beginnings of a real decline in cases, therefore, must be a function of bad modeling, lagging testing, success of the County's disease suppression strategy, or some combination of the three. Low daily new case growth adjusted against county health Director assumption (and my adjustment) of 61 cures to date means that Summit County real outstanding cases may be at curve peak or even on the decline.
More transparency in reporting "cures" could suggest case decline rate where discussion of reopening local economy should be entertained.
Coronavirus.Utah.Gov does not report or measure social costs of current Coronavirus mitigation strategies ie. suicides, domestic violence, increases in violent crime, poverty, depressed herd immunity to Coronavirus, unemployment or impact of constraints to individual freedom. State government reaction to Coronavirus seems to be singularly focussed on disease eradication while ignoring social and economic consequences of the disease. Sadly, no consideration appears to be given by government authorities to doing both.
Above: TIMDT at U of U Health Center, Murray, UT. 14 April 2020.
Essential Bishop medical appointment outside of Summit County.
Daily Three Miler.
Following my doctor's appointment, TIMDT and Mwah (sic) circumnavigated Fashion Place Mall. Ghost mall. Nobody there. Eerie. Reminded of scenes from "The Cell," "World War Z," or "The Walking Dead." As we walked around what looked like a movie set of post apocalyptic, empty buildings, I half expected zombies to race from around the corner and attack us.
Getting to my doctor's appointment entailed extra steps. Three days ago, a woman from U of U health care called to pre screen me for my appointment.
"Have you been sick?
Have you had a fever?
Have you traveled to Europe or China last three months? Yada."
Passing that test I was "authorized" to get to my appointment three days hence.
Today, wearing a bandana on my face, I entered the U of U health care center pictured here. I was stopped at the building entrance by a man and a woman, each wearing medical masks.
"Before you enter," the man said, "we have to take your temperature."
The man applied his device to my forehead. "You can't come in," the man said. "Your temperature is 101."
"That's impossibe," I replied. "I haven't been within six feet of anyone but my wife for the last four weeks. I don't feel sick at all," I said.
The man replied, "Well, maybe you'll start feeling sick tomorrow."
"Let me try," the woman said. She applied her device to my forehead four separate times. Each time the readout was 98.6 degrees.
"You're good to go," said the woman.
Whew.
— with Margaret Taylor at Univ of Utah Health Care.
Above: Duc. Rockport State Park, Summit County. 14 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine.
Out and about on the Duc.
Cedar Point hike.
Physical distancing from.... birds.
DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT WUHAN VIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Tuesday 14 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 10:00 PM).
306 confirmed cases Summit County, up no change from yesterday. County health director estimated 08 April, 50 recoveries. Recoveries are not netted out of the cases total. . Add 13 for last five days (estimate) so adjusted confirmed cases is 306 - 63 = 243, down two from adjusted confirmed cases yesterday. This is first day since Summit County Quarantine order issued 25 March 2020 WHERE. per my model, THERE HAS BEEN A DECLINE IN ADJUSTED CASES OUTSTANDING.
No Covid-19 deaths to date in Summit County.
Say, 10x cases is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 2430 Summit County contagions today (10 x 243 = 2430.
Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 6.0% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%.
Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 2.9% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 2.9%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 7 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .000175% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand souls. The death forecast number could be overstated since aged proportion of Summit County cases is disproportionately low at 11% of total cases.
Summit County has 28 hospitalizations, up two from yesterday.
Before issuing stay at home, physical distancing guidelines on 25 March 2020, Summit County officials warned of exponential growth of contagion if mitigation actions were not taken.
Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date, or even the beginnings of a real decline in "adjusted cases," therefore, must be a function of bad modeling, lagging testing, success of the County's disease suppression strategy, or some combination of the three. Low daily new case growth adjusted against county health Director assumption (and my adjustment) of 61 cures to date means that Summit County real outstanding cases may be at curve peak or even on the decline.
More transparency in reporting "cures" could suggest case decline rate where discussion of reopening local economy should be entertained.
Coronavirus.Utah.Gov does not report or measure social costs of current Coronavirus mitigation strategies ie. suicides, domestic violence, increases in violent crime, poverty, depressed herd immunity to Coronavirus, unemployment or impact of constraints to individual freedom. State government reaction to Coronavirus seems to be singularly focussed on disease eradication while ignoring social and economic consequences of the disease. Sadly, no consideration appears to be given by government authorities to doing both.