Picto Diary - 14, 15 August 2024 - Hoover Institution Jackson Hole Retreat

Above: TerraPower nuclear plant under construction. Kemmerer, Wyoming. 14 August 2024.
Out and about on the Duc.

Image: Phase 1. Sodium Test and Fill Facility. Phase 2: Natrium Fuel Fabrication Facility, construction starts 2028. Phase 3. Natrium reactor, construction starts 2028. Plant targeted to go online: 2030.

Above: US 189 five miles south of LaBarge, Wyoming. 14 August 2024.
Out and about on the Duc.

Image: Bishop on Duc. Behind, unmarked, black, SUV police vehicle. No ticket. Warning.
I knew he was back there. I had passed by him as he was parked perpendicular to the highway on a dirt road ten miles before he pulled me over. I saw him pull out onto the highway heading north in the same direction I was going, after I passed by him. On seeing the trooper's maneuver, I verified that 2021 Ducati Multistrada's cruise control was on the speed limit, 70 mph. I rarely speed these days anyway, particularly on open highways. Exceptions: I might go as fast as ten over if there is a suitable rabbit ahead, but even that is rare. The other exception would be to step it up a bit on a deliciously curvy road.

I glanced back occasionally. He was way back...perhaps a half mile back. His head lamps were illuminated, and he was easy to spot when not hidden behind a curve in the road. About ten miles from where I first noticed the trooper, I looked back and there he was coming up fast behind me his cruiser red, blue and white lights flashing. I pulled over, put the bike's side stand down, took my helmet off and waited for him to approach. The trooper walked up to the bike. He stood about ten feet from me on the road shoulder to my right.

The trooper asked where I was going... he burrowed in specifically... at what hotel was I staying? Where was the Hoover event... yada. Probable cause for the stop, he told me, was suspicion that I might have been inebriated. The trooper, young thirties, amiable enough, said I was sashaying in the lane too much (!). I replied that I might have been moved by a wind gust from one side of the lane to the other. I said it's not uncommon to change from one side of the lane to the other to avoid a road snake or an obstruction. I didn't say this to the cop, but I have never been aware that it is illegal for a motorcyclist to move from one side of the lane to the other. In over 300K miles of motorcycling I have never been stopped for this "infraction"

I was dutifully polite and compliant, but I had been through variations of this kind of traffic stop before. Once, riding one of the new C BMW cruisers introduced circa 1998, in Chandler, AZ, a cop stopped me saying I made an improper right turn in a previous intersection. He spent the entire time of the stop looking at my bike and asking questions about how I liked it. He sent me on my way without citation or warning. On another occasion, circa 2004, riding a BMW K1200 RS northbound on I 215 on the Salt Lake east bench, I was stopped. Same routine as the Chandler, AZ stop... the officer wanted to talk about my bright red beemer. He gave me a warning for going five over the limit. In 2010 I was riding eastbound descending from the summit of Lolo Pass, US 12, towards Missoula. A Montana trooper stopped me. This time I probably was "ticketable (sic)" as I was riding at about ten over the limit. But, again, the officer spent all the time eyeing and talking about my ride, a BMW K1200 LT luxury tourer. He sent me on my way with no warning admonishing me to "ride safe (sic)."

I'm guessing that the sashaying bike claim was nothing more than an excuse to relieve the lonely trooper's boredom. In a way I don't blame the trooper. The fifty-mile-long section of US 189 from Kemmerer to LaBarge is very little traveled. The only interesting sight of note is the crossing over US 189 of a section of the old Oregon Trail, noted by a sign beside the road and a story board in a turn out. I was out there all alone. No companion riders. I might have been moving between sides of the lane from time to time, but not in a way that would suggest I was drunk. Were that the case, the trooper would have seen me go beyond the center line or onto the shoulder. I was on a bright red, high performance motorcycle, perhaps rare on that road, plus I am a big man, and I may cut an unusual sight as a large figure riding a medium sized, albeit spirited, motorcycle.

Later, something else related to the trooper's possible motivation to stop me occurred to me. Midway between Kemmerer and LaBarge, twenty or so miles before my having been stopped, the highway was half dry, half wet from what must have been a recent thunder shower. I thought to myself: Lucky me, I avoided some rain. The road was wet for about five miles. Later, after giving me my traffic warning for too much sashaying (!), the trooper asked me, "Did you go through that hailstorm back towards Kemmerer? Hail stones, the size of golf balls were falling." I told him I didn't see or experience a hailstorm. He then said, "not to worry ahead, because the weather is clear between Bear Lake (to my west) and Jackson (where I was headed). Ride safely out there."

A hailstorm of magnitude can be dicey for a motorcyclist. I've ridden in hail before. The helmet protects the head. The armored jacket protects the shoulders and the back, but hail stones falling on the arms and thighs are painful.... not to mention the increased riding instability brought about by hailstones on the road. In a hailstorm such as the trooper described, I would have just had to stop the bike, crouch down on the ground, and tough it out. There was no shelter in the purported area of the hailstorm. The trooper might have been hyper curious not only about a solitary rider on a fast bike, but also about the rider's frame of mind after riding under high-risk conditions.

Again, the trooper was amiable. He only asked for my license after I told him the insurance and registration was under the seat and would take a few moments to retrieve. I showed him maximum respect. After receiving the warning, I told him cops don't get enough respect today and that I appreciated his commitment to keeping the public safe. He thanked me and we went on our separate ways, him departing first as it took me a few moments to put my helmet and gloves back on before starting the Duc.

Above: Three Creek Ranch Country Club. Jackson, WY 14 August 2024.
Out and about on the Duc.

"Billionaire Wilderness" and white privilege?
Mwah (sic) and Kilimanjaro.
Bishop invited by LSDM stalwart and LSDM Jackson representative to his country club for dinner and a concert by Billy Joel's band sans Billy. Band played mostly Billy Joel covers. Tremendous meal and music. Great night. Thanks to Kilimanjaro for nice evening.

Hoover Jackson Hole SDT Speaker Notes

Note: Speaker notes are mine. Mistakes in transcription are also mine.
Note: I regret missing the final speaker, Drew Endy, Science Fellow and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution. Topic: Securing Biotechnology for Democracy. I had a five-hour motorcycle ride ahead of me and I wanted to get back to Park City before dark.

Above: Douglas Rivers, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution. Pollster. Hoover Jackson Hole Summer Retreat, Four Seasons Hotel, Jackson, Hole, WY. 15 August 2024.

Two key takeaways:
1. Today, US presidential election is a toss-up.
2. Illegal alien votes: a non-issue.

Jim Mattis. Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution. Former US Secretary of Defense. Hoover Jackson Hole Summer Retreat, Four Seasons Hotel, Jackson, Hole, WY. 15 August 2024.

America is divided today. No unity at home makes it tougher to confront our enemies.
US spends 1% less of GDP on defense today than it did one year ago.
US military manpower threatened. US forces not meeting recruiting goals.
Putin is a mystic leading Russia into becoming a vassal state of China.
Iran is biggest threat to middle east. Sans Iran threat, ME would be relatively quiet.
Allies. Allies. Allies. US plus NATO allies in synch will restrain Russia, China, Iran belligerence.

In a post meeting colloquy with General Mattis, I asked him this: As Secretary of Defense, you were a direct report to the president. Today we have a president who has been judged mentally unfit to stand trial, and who has stepped down from his position as a presidential candidate due, purportedly, to mental incapacity. As someone who has been a one-down report of the president, don't you view this as a serious problem of compromised national security if Biden remains as president for the next five months?

General Mattis: I didn't have as much interaction with President Trump as you might think. I called President Trump once a week to let him know what I was doing. If I wanted to move a carrier here or there, I didn't need presidential approval to do that. To be sure, a serious need/request to use military force would have been brought to the president's attention. There are three national security reports to Biden who are top notch. The nation's defense is in good hands today. Blinken, at State is excellent. Austin at Defense is a good guy. William Burns, as head of the CIA, is one of the best CIA heads ever. Burns knows more about what is going on in Moscow than Putin does. Biden's mental status is not as bad as claimed by some. To be sure, Biden's debate performance was not good, but he's improved much since then. I believe he is capable of making a serious call for the use of force if the need arises.

Another person asked Genral Mattis about the preferences of our NATO allies for who should be the next president. General Mattis answered, "they would prefer Harris, who would be more receptive than Trump to the idea of keeping NATO strong."

Ayaan Hirsi Ali. Research Fellow, Hoover Institution. Author: "Infidel: My Life." Hoover Jackson Hole Summer Retreat, Four Seasons Hotel, Jackson Hole, WY. 15 August 2024.

High Trust Societies - traditionally western culture. Maximum individual freedom.
Low Trust Societies - like my birth country, Somalia. Tribal compliance. Minimum individual freedom. US morphing towards low trust, tribal society. Individual freedom eroding. Abetted by accelerated illegal immigration and proliferation of Marxist doctrines which tribalize the culture. Marxist doctrines have proliferated in big government and big business.

Q. We are a polite society. Author Gad Saad has coined the term, "suicidal empathy" to describe how our citizens, not wanting to be impolite, allow for bad actors to introduce harmful doctrines into the culture. Saad has said that the progressive diversity cult is killing the West by a thousand cuts.

A. Politeness is a feature of the nation state. Citizens assume good faith on the part of other citizens. This feature of the nation state, politeness, is twisted by bad actors to advance radical ideologies. The "polite" thing for well-meaning citizens to do when harmful doctrines are advanced into the culture is to speak up and call the perpetrators out on it!"

Ross Levine. Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution. Financial regulation expert; economist. Hoover Jackson Hole Summer Retreat, Four Seasons Hotel, Jackson Hole, WY. 15 August 2024

Above: Ross Levine graph. "The Secret Graph that Economists Won't Show You."
US growth (real output per person) has been growing at a steady pace, 2% growth per year, since 1860. This despite world wars, economic cycles, changing tax policy, natural disasters etc. The US is unique in the world with this long sustained pattern of growth. "American exceptionalism?" The US gets it wrong once and a while... but over the course of time there seem to be forces at play that push the US back to entrepreneurialism and forward progress.

That's not to say we should be complacent. There are risks on the horizon that could break the positive pattern of the graph.

1. Move to zero sum mindset. The so-called push for equality. Government focused on sharing the pie... who gets what. And not on growing the size of the pie, which has, as the above graph has shown, to be the most effective way to ensure prosperity.

2. Growing debt.

3. Growing financial regulation. A stifled financial system stifles economic progress.

4. Growing government intervention in private markets.

Q. Have you read "The Coming Wave," by Mustafa Suleyman? The book forecasts a tech wave... AI and synthetic biology... that will put the industrial revolution, electricity, and railroad waves to shame. Based on what I read in the book, US GDP growth rates in excess of 4% are reachable within the next ten years. This could impact the trajectory of the "graph that economists don't want anyone to see."

A. I have not read the book. I'll check it out. I'm optimistic on AI. My general view is that AI is a positive technological development, and that mankind will find a way to neuter its threats.

Above: Jackson Hole Ski Resort. Alpine Village. Wyoming. 15 August 2024.
Out and about on the Duc.

Ahead: 270-mile ride to Park City, UT via Star Valley, Wyoming, Rich County, UT, and Evanston, Wyoming. Five state line crossings on this ride, Wyoming to Idaho, Idaho, to Wyoming, Wyoming to Utah, Utah to Wyoming, and Wyoming to Utah. I'll make one stop at Cokeville, WY to refuel and take the obligatory snack break at Cokeville City Park.

Above: City Park. Cokeville, WY. 15 August 2024.
Out and about on the Duc.

Glorious riding day. 80 degrees average temperature. 10 x 10 atmospheric clarity in a region recently sullied with California wildfire smoke and Great Basin dust.

A three-fer riding day. 1. Enjoy the glorious western landscape roll by under ideal weather conditions. 2. Enjoy the riding features of a high-performance motorcycle - speed, lean, acceleration - on limited traffic, well-engineered roads. The Duc Multistrada has 170 horsepower, 4x the horsepower of the VW Beetle I drove when in graduate school - 1970. 3. Enjoy exercising brain with complex machine: separate brake controls for each wheel, front and rear; standard transmission clutch lever and gear shift at foot: weight shift to make effective turn: need for more attention and awareness given inherent instability of two wheeled machine.

As I rode under these idyllic conditions, I recalled from my memory some of my rides in less than idyllic conditions.

1. Tohoku Express way riding north to Tokyo, at 11 PM at night, in the tail winds of a typhoon.
2. Riding down the east side of Mt. Rainier towards Yakima in the mother of all rainstorms.
3. Slip sliding for two miles down a muddy road in Chechnya on a BMW GS using my feet as outriggers.
4. In light rain, climbing the rocky steps of Engineer Pass on a BMW GS in the Colorado San Juan Mountains.
5. Two dozen water crossings in an off and on torrential rainstorm on a dirt road, late night, between Abancay and Yauri, Peru.

Yin yang. Without experiencing the "bad," you can't fully appreciate the "good."

Above: Bear River Divide, Cokeville, WY. 15 August 2024.
Out and about on the 'Duc.

5:00 PM lighting indicates both atmospheric clarity and stunning shadow relief on the Bear River Divide.

Above: WY, UT, ID corner monument road. Lincoln County, WY.

Ungraded dirt road runs west from a county road connecting Cokeville, WY and Sage Creek Junction, UT. About a mile up the road is the monument marker marking the point where the three states intersect. I might have been inclined to ride to the monument today but riding such remote and gnarly conditions without a companion or a Garmin transmitter is too risky. I had neither.

Addendum:

Happy birthday. Catching up to us.
V,
Park City, UT

Happy birthday big man! Nice way to celebrate.
Carpet,
Atlanta, Georgia

Happy Birthday 🎊🎉🎈 to you! Just celebrated 73 a couple of weeks ago. I enjoy reading about the family and all your adventures. Hope to get to Utah in the fall; Mike and I are headed to the UK next month. Ashland and Shakespeare festival are doing well. Great schedule for 2025, hope to see you here!

Best and take care,
Cousin Cyd,
Ashland, OR

tks.

Hope to c u both in next year. I might get to Ashland before the snow. Stay a couple of days with us when you are in Utah.

Happy belated Birthday. [Bond's] birthday was the 11th of Aug. He turned 81.
Bridge,
Palm Beach, FL

Happy Birthday Steve!
Tony,
Park City, UT

Happy Birthday, you old geezer! We'll all be 80 soon🥴 trudy
Uintah Theater,
Salt Lake City, UT

Happy Birthday Steve.
Mohan,
Gurgaon, Haryana

Happy Birthday Steve,
Hoops,
Pelham, NY