Picto Diary - 15 April 2020 - India Presentation via Zoom

Above: TIMDT and Geese. Rail Trail. Wanship, UT. 15 April 2020.

Summit County Quarantine.
Daily three miler.
Rail Trail.
Extreme physical distancing... from geese.

Above: Bishop. at Tiny Ass Ranch. Wanship, UT. 15 April 2020.

Summit County Quarantine.
Daily three miler.
Rail Trail.
I wonder if they own a big ass truck? — with Margaret Taylor in Wanship, Utah.

Above: Granny observes presentation from home. Park City UT. 15 April 2020.

Grrr, from home, gives virtual (Zoom) classroom, Carden Memorial School, presentation on India.

Grrr unveiled his tour de force Lego rendition of the Taj Mahal.

DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT WUHAN VIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Wednesday 15 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 10:00 PM).

306 confirmed cases Summit County, no change from the last two days. County health director estimated 08 April, 50 recoveries. Recoveries are not netted out of the cases total. Add 15 recoveries for last five days (my estimate) so adjusted confirmed cases is 306 - 65 = 241, down two from adjusted confirmed cases yesterday. This is second day since Summit County Quarantine order issued 25 March 2020 WHERE. per my model, THERE HAS BEEN A DECLINE IN ADJUSTED CASES OUTSTANDING.

No Covid-19 deaths to date in Summit County.

Say, 10x cases is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 2410

Summit County contagions today (10 x 241 = 2410.
Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 6.0% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%.

Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 2.9% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 2.9%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 7 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .000175% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand souls. The death forecast number could be overstated since aged proportion of Summit County cases is disproportionately low at 11% of total cases.

Summit County has 29 hospitalizations, up one from yesterday.

Before issuing stay at home, physical distancing guidelines on 25 March 2020, Summit County officials warned of exponential growth of contagion if mitigation actions were not taken.

Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date, or even the beginnings of a real decline in "adjusted cases," therefore, must be a function of bad modeling, lagging testing, success of the County's disease suppression strategy, or some combination of the three. Low daily new case growth adjusted against county health Director assumption (and my adjustment) of 63 cures to date means that Summit County real outstanding cases may be at curve peak or even on the decline.

More transparency in reporting "cures" could suggest case decline rate where discussion of reopening local economy should be vigorously entertained.

Coronavirus.Utah.Gov does not report or measure social costs of current Coronavirus mitigation strategies ie. suicides, domestic violence, increases in violent crime, poverty, depressed herd immunity to Coronavirus, unemployment or impact of constraints to individual freedom. County government reaction to Coronavirus seems to be singularly focussed on disease eradication while ignoring social and economic consequences of the disease. Little consideration appears to be given by County government authorities to doing both...yet.