Picto Diary - 16 April 2020 - Home School
Above: TIMDT. Echo to Henefer Trail. 16 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine
Daily three miler.
Witches Rocks Trail.
South (our car)/north views of Weber River valley.
Above: TIMDT. Story boards. Echo, UT. 16 April 2020.
Summit County Quarantine
Daily three miler.
TIMDT reads story boards on transcontinental railway, the passage through here by 70K Mormon pioneers, the history of Echo City, and the first European in this valley in 1824, John C. Weber, a German born fur trapper, after whom the adjacent river was named.
We both try to channel our thoughts back to eras gone by. Over yonder, there's Brigham Young giving instructions to his lieutenants. Look at those Irish railway workers over there. They laid 6 miles of ties today. John C. Weber looks rugged in his buckskin clothing. Is that indian woman beside him his wife? — in Echo, Utah.
Above: Z Man. Italy Zoom presentation from home while attending virtual Carden School. Salt Lake City, UT. 16 April 2020.
Z presentation on Italy, from home over Zoom to his classmates, and by us on video later in the day. He talked about some of the places he visited on a trip there in 2018: Mt. Vesuvius, the Roman Coliseum, and the Vatican. Good job Z man! — at Carden Memorial School.
DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT CCP WUHAN VIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Thursday 16 APRIL 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 7:00 AM, 17 April 2020).
308 confirmed cases Summit County, up two from yesterday. County health director estimated 08 April, 50 recoveries. Recoveries are not netted out of the cases total. Add 17 recoveries for last five days (my estimate) so adjusted confirmed cases is 308 - 67 = 241, same as adjusted confirmed cases yesterday.
No Covid-19 deaths to date in Summit County.
Say, 10x cases is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 2410 Summit County contagions today (10 x 241 = 2410.
Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 6.0% County Contagion Rate (CCR) Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%.
Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 2.9% US; China 4%; Italy 9%. Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 2.9%, based on adjusted CURRENT cases, 7 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .000175% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand souls. The death forecast number could be overstated since aged proportion of Summit County cases is disproportionately low at 11% of total cases.
Summit County has 29 hospitalizations, same as yesterday.
Before issuing stay at home, physical distancing guidelines on 25 March 2020, Summit County officials warned of exponential growth of contagion if mitigation actions were not taken.
Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers to date, or even the beginnings of a real decline in "adjusted cases," therefore, must be a function of bad modeling, lagging testing, success of the County's disease suppression strategy, or some combination of the three.
Planned for hospital capacity has, so far, far exceeded actual need. Shaming citizens to stay home to avoid risking selfishly sopping up needed hospital capacity, in hindsight, to be sure, appears to have been excessive.
Low daily new case growth adjusted against County Health Director assumption (and my adjustment) of 67 cures to date means that Summit County real outstanding cases may be at curve peak or even on the decline.
More transparency in reporting "cures" could suggest case decline rate where discussion of reopening local economy should be more vigorously entertained. Reporting cases growth without incorporating cures misleads the public. What motives are behind this flawed reporting?
Coronavirus.Utah.Gov does not report or measure social costs of current Coronavirus mitigation strategies ie. suicides, domestic violence, increases in violent crime, poverty, depressed herd immunity to Coronavirus, unemployment or impact of constraints to individual freedom.
County government reaction to Coronavirus seems to be singularly focussed on disease eradication while ignoring social and economic consequences of the disease.
But, I was encouraged to hear today from a Park City official that discussions between county health officials and business owners have ramped up to determine reopen dates and special requirements for reopening.