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Picto Diary - 17 to 18 October 2024 - Hoover Institution Fall Retreat, Palo Alto, CA

Above: Who's Winning? slide. Hoover Fall Retreat. Palo Alto, CA. 17 October 2024.
Doug Rivers and Dave Brady.

Debates changed very few votes.
Best issue for Dems is abortion.
Best issue for Pubs is immigration.
Economy advantageous for Trump.
Gender: Harris. Doing less well among men than Biden. Race: Harris doing less well than Biden amongst blacks and Hispanics. Inflation #1 issue. Net, Harris generally behind Biden in 2020. Trump: playing for the base...pushing for turnout. Harris: Rogan and Fox attempt to pull independents. Taylor Swift endorsement of Harris doesn't move the needle. Overall: Too close to call.

Above: Polymarket Slide. Hoover Fall Retreat. Palo Alto, CA. 17 October 2024.
Douglas Rivers and Dave Brady.

Immigration slides. Hoover Fall Retreat. Palo Alto, CA. 17 October 2024.
Steven Davis, Valerie Ramey

On #8 in the lower slide. I am against creating a path to citizenship for illegal border crossers but feel that a periodically renewable guest worker permit sanctioned by a legitimate employer would be acceptable.

Hoover Fall Retreat. Palo Alto, CA. 17 October 2024.
Elizabeth Economy, Abbas Milani, and Stephen Kotkin.

Round One: China, Russia, and Iran.

Elizabeth Economy: Xi views Russia and Iran as supporting actors. Wants dominance in Asia Pacific and US out. Wants China to be insulated from global economy and US sanctions. Xi wants other countries to ally their values with China. State controlled internet. Global initiatives...end of US alliance system. Global de-dollarization.

Abbas Milani: Hoover is most attacked US institution by Iran regime. China largest prison of Muslims on the world. Supreme Leader says West in decline and next century is the Asian century. Iran has offered China right of first refusal on new contracts. Still, China does business with Saudi. Iran now weak. Corrupt. China built new port in Pakistan, not Iran. China has deemed Iran unworthy.

Stephen Kotkin: Personalities matter, but not dispositive. China/Russia/Iran are resentful. They don't like that their ancient civilizations live in a US dominated world. Resentment of international order. Regimes are afraid of American power. The existence of America is their problem.

Borders of defeat. Crimea. Israeli. Taiwan. They are determined to rectify. Borders of defeat are a harder problem to manage than borders of victory.

Round Two: China, Russia and Iran.

Elizabeth Economy: There is more China acceptance of Iran than you say, Abbas Milani. China not, as you say, driven by resentment. They think their system is better...that West is in decline. Ukraine important marker of US success or failure. Iran is nowhere near Russia in China's hierarchy of partners.

Abbas Milani: China is the big boy bully. Iran is the little kid who obeys. Iran as a bastion of Islamic revolution is failing. Iran intellectuals see Russia as an enemy. Over history Russia has taken land from Iran. Iran regime in its current form cannot continue. For now, Iran has to go along.

Stephen Kotkin: Whatever their motivations re US, China/Russia/Iran still represent a threat to current US order. US has succeeded in keeping axis in check so far. US shouldn't forget axis vulnerability. Coming, China aspiration tor tech domination.

Goodfellows: Hoover Fall Retreat. Palo Alto, CA. 17 October 2024.

John Cochrane
Niell Ferguson
H.R. McMaster
Andrew Roberts
Bill Whalen, Moderator

Counterfactual propositions.

What if continental army lost battle of Saratoga?
Cochrane: US becomes giant Canada. No constitution or bill of rights. Cricket and not baseball.
Roberts. Better trade, faster economic growth, in short term.

What if Lenin assassinated on arrival in Moscow 1917?
Roberts. No communism.
Ferguson: Russia couldn't industrialize as fast as it did. Communism today only exists in Albania and certain British and American universities.

What if JFK not killed?
Ferguson. JFK deified by liberals at the time. JFK less committed to civil rights. Johnson more persuasive. More involvement in Vietnam. No Great Society. Roberts: No endless conspiracy theories.

Deng 1978. Rather than lead China into a period of reform, Deng goes "North Korea." Cochrane: China under Deng: biggest improvement in general wellbeing of humans in history. Also good for the US. US wouldn't have done as well with China as "North Korea." We wouldn't have cheap electric drills. Tiananmen Square was the lynchpin. China didn't go the way of Russia.

Above: Carole Harlow and Mwah (sic). Hoover Institution retreat dinner. Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA.
Serendipitous meeting of two individuals who hadn't seen one another for forty years. Carol's husband John's parents lived two houses away from my parents' house in Oak Hills, Provo, UT. Both our fathers were affiliated with BYU. John, a search executive with Korn Ferry and Mwah (sic) knew one another as acquaintances. Per Carole, John passed away eighteen months ago. They had spent most of their time in the Bay Area since we were acquainted in Utah forty years ago. Carole was across-the-table guest of my dinner seatmate, Hoover Overseer, Lauri Shepard.

Addendum:

You two certainly get around! 🙂
Drummer J,
Lehi, UT


Thanks for sharing

Mano,
San Jose, CA