Picto Diary - 19, 20, 21, 22 March 2020 - Walking in Cornavirus Era

Above: North American Spotted Draft Horse. Midway, UT. 19 March 2020.

Physical distancing. Daily three mile walk.

Above Mynduveroan. Dressage. Midway. 19 March 2020.

Above: Grandkids. Keeping a distance but, staying close in the age of coronavirus. 20 March 2020

Above: Bison. Bear River State Park. Evanston, WY. 21 March 2020.

Daily three miler.

Wuhan coronavirus.

Following guidelines from the Summit County Health Department, we are pretty much holed up at home all day.... but, for a daily, three mile walk.

Summit County Commissioner Roger Armstrong passed out a nice list of do's and don'ts the other day. "You can't ski," he said. "But, get out and go for a walk!"

We've done some walks around town, but, find quite a few other people taking Armstrong's advice. And, while most people respect the authorities' admonition to keep a distance... social distancing... from others, finding places to walk where hardly anyone is present isn't always easy to do in the "urban confines" of Park City.

The Bear River Greenway and the extended walk into Bear River State Park, Evanston, WY is devoid of people. It's one of our favorite places even when there is no exigency to practice social distancing.

Whenever we go out walking, we wear gloves. In principal, nothing is touched outside of our home and our vehicle. We wash our hands when we get back. No one, I guess, is immune from catching the Wuhan Virus, but, we're trying our best to go along with the authorities' dicta.

One new learning when out walking in the Wuhan Virus era. Manage your pit stops carefully. Other than employing the San Francisco method, all park/public restrooms are closed. Convenience stores are open. But, that entails touching stuff we want to avoid. — at Bear River Greenway.

Above: Wanship Dam north and south. Wanship, UT. 22 March 2020.

Out on the daily three mile walk.
Nobody here.

Part of the walking area is Federal property (because of the Wanship Dam) and there are "No firearms allowed" signs posted. My first instinct was that it might be unsafe around here sans the right for self protection, but, apart from a couple of fisherman wading in the Weber River, there was no one but Mwah (sic). So, I took a calculated risk in staying.

Wuhan Virus

Interesting in this morning's LSDM conference call, was some discussion about Summit County Wuhan Virus infection levels.

NC State reported that as of yesterday, there were 39 certified cases of coronavirus in Summit County. I think, about eight of those were tourists, holed up here under quarantine. The rest are local cases.

Since the thirty nine individual carriers have all been tested, it is widely thought that there far more people in Summit County carrying the virus, but, we don't know how many because they may have only mild symptoms and are behaving as though they have the common cold or a mild bout of the flu. So, they haven't been tested and we dont know about them.

Considering the likelihood of numerous unknown cases of coronavirus in Summit County, I asked NC State if anyone had made an estimate of the "real" infection level in the county. NC State said that Summit County Health Director, Richard Bullough had told Park City officials that there were at least 10x the reported carriers in Summit County.

Lets do some simple numbers. 10x 39 confirmed cases, equals, say, 400 likely cases of coronavirus infection in Summit County as of this AM. I know. these are just estimates, but bear with me.

If there are 40K residents in Summit County (I think there are a bit less) that would mean that, as of now, 1% of the population is infected with corona virus. NC State said that the County is reluctant to release information about how many of the corona virus infected are hospitalized. No deaths have been reported.

We know that the infection rate on the Diamond Princess, a close quartered petri dish study, where everyone of 3K or so passengers was tested, was one in five. 20%.

WHO/CDC authorities suggested that after this disease runs its course, the infection rate will be fifty percent.

If the low number out there... Diamond Princess 20% infection rate, were reached in Park City, that would mean that 8000 Summit County citizens would contract the virus. 20,000 Summit County Denizens would contract the virus if WHO/CDC projections are accurate. Death rates have been as high as 12% of reported infections in Italy and as low 3% in Japan. Squishy numbers everywhere make it hard to draw firm conclusions about where this "demon" (hat tip Pesident Xi) is headed.

The pattern of infection, and death, seems to happen much differently in different parts of the world. The current mantra is that we in the US need to be prepared for "an Italy," now, the world's worst case. Italy/Europe is what is driving American public policy today. But, what is going on in Japan where, as of now, infection rates are a small percentage of infection rates in Europe? And why were the infection rates of the Diamond Princess so low, relatively speaking?

The above numbers helped me to understand Summit County's problem with more context than I had had before.

I'm not saying anything for or agin' current public policy approach. TIMDT and Mwah (sic) are doing our best to follow Summit County Health Department dicta. I am astounded about how this plague is behaving differently in different parts of the world. And, I agree, that hoping for the best, but, preparing for the worst is probably a good way to think about it, at least until we know more... or until a deus ex machina pops out of the sky.