Picto Diary - 20, 21, 22 April 2022 - Hoover Institution 2022 Spring Retreat Scottsdale, AZ

I'm hopeful about America's future.  But we have more work to do.  More people need to become involved in public life.  There is a coalition of cowardice out there that is getting run over by the radical left.  Doug Ducey, Governor Arizona.

Note:  Note taker is fallible.  Mistakes are his.  Emphasis is that of the notetaker.  Notes are not comprehensive summaries of each speaker.  Audacious SDT commentary written after the event while compiling the notes.  "L'audace... toujours, l'audace!"
Above:  Bishop 'n TIMDT.  J and G Restaurant, Scottsdale, AZ. 20 April 2022.
We drove the Sprinter on a familiar road today, though we haven't been this way, from Las Vegas to Phoenix via Hoover Dam and Kingman, AZ for fifteen years. It was strange driving the van without Freddie along.  Freddie has been a constant companion on the 40 thousand miles we've put on the Sprinter since our first trip, October 2020.   Freddie is a guest at a dog hotel in St. George, UT.  The Joshua trees between Kingman and Wikieup look more anemic than I remember fifteen years ago while passing through this way.
Hoover retreats are typically at Hoover headquarters on the campus of Stanford University in Palo Alto, CA.  Director Rice informed that she wanted to do something different this time.  The interviews with Governor Doug Ducey and Mayors Gallego (Phoenix) and Giles (Mesa) made the change of venue a winning decision in my view (scroll).
Above:  Presentation slide of David Leal, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Phoencian Hotel, Scottsdale, AZ.  21 April 2022.
Leal:  Question the conventional wisdom that claims Democrats will ride the Hispanic vote to a permanent majority.
Above:  John Cochrane (Senior Fellow) Spring Retreat Hoover Institution slide comparing recent inflation rates and interest rates.  Hoover Institution Spring Retreat, Phoenecian Hotel, Scottsdale, AZ.  21 April 2022. 
Longest period in modern times where rate increases lag inflationary build up.  Conventional wisdom says Fed has missed the mark and recession is on the say.  But The Grumpy Economist says, "maybe not."
Above:  Arum Majumdar Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution Spring Retreat slide.  Phoenician Hotel, Scottsdale, AZ.  21 April 2022.
How to grow the economy, protect security, and reduce climate threat.
SDT Commentary: Recommendation presupposes that India and China cooperate.  Ukraine War shows Europe energy security foolishly sacrificed for climate goals, now surfacing the additional risk of weaker European economic security.  US needs to avoid the same trap.  Drill baby drill... particularly in light of growing science (Lonborg, Curry) that IPCC climate risks are overstated.
Above:  Victor Davis Hanson and Niall Ferguson, Distinguished Senior Fellows, Hoover Institution Spring Retreat, Phoenician Hotel, Scottsdale, AZ.  21 April 2022.
In these dark ages of history instruction in the US, Hoover, in preserving history is like the Irish monks who preserved classical knowledge during the Dark Ages.
SDT Commentary:  Speakers talk of building a much-needed haven for undistorted history at Hoover but don't yet, for me, put forward a convincing strategy for strengthening the pipeline of young, "true history" scholars.  
Above:  Mayor John Giles, Mesa, AZ and Mayor Kate Gallego, Phoenix, AZ.  Hoover Institution Spring Retreat, Phoenician Hotel, Scottsdale, AZ.  22 April 2022.
Giles:  Affordable housing is a big problem, but water is not the problem you might think it is.  
Gallego:  Crime is at an all-time low.  Funding public safety is a top priority.
SDT Commentary:  Gallego is a Democrat.  Conservatives may have to shelve the idea that Democrat mismanagement of cities is a universal phenomenon throughout the United States.  Southern US cities like Miami (Pub mayor) and Phoenix (we have lived in both cities) are firing on all eight cylinders.  
Above:  General Jim Mattis, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution Spring Retreat, Phoenician Hotel, Scottsdale, AZ.  22 April 2022.
Nations with allies thrive.  Nations without allies wither.  
When I was Secretary of Defense, my mantra was to never do anything brought Russia and China closer together.  Biden has failed on that front.  
By attacking Ukraine, Putin hoped to weaken NATO.  Yet NATO is stronger.  
Putin and Xi caught flat-footed by amount of successful international sanctions against Russia following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  US intelligence on Russia is outstanding.  Very likely that we will see the strongest NATO ever in the near future.  
This situation has awakened sleeping giants in democratic countries.  US embarrassment in Afghanistan has been forgotten.  
Fears of woke-ism in the military are overblown.
SDT Commentary:  
As I listened to General Mattis, I welled up emotionally as I reflected on his mighty contribution to the United States as a soldier, and as America's Secretary of Defense.  Hoover is fortunate to have such individuals giving of their experience to influence American direction and public policy.  My comments that follow seem audacious given the vast difference of experience that I have relative to General Mattis - I travel (I've made three visits to Russia and two visits to Ukraine)... I read books, what?  But, the topic interests me... and these are my reflections.
Ukraine:  No off ramp for Putin in sight.  A true tragedy in the making as the West head fakes its virtue by giving Ukraine weapons to prolong what is in reality a lost cause... short of NATO direct military intervention.  Europe gaining leverage by shedding dependence on Russian energy within the next eighteen months is doubtful, unless the US opens its own energy production floodgates to meet Europe energy needs (not likely).  The Ruble strengthens as $1 billion a day flows from Europe to Moscow for energy payments.  
 
Real politique-wise, Putin's power playing perspicacity in his Ukraine maneuver is truly impressive. Of course, I hope I am wrong on this score, but I don't believe enough Russians at home are sufficiently internationalized to pry Putin loose, not to mention a long history of Russian resiliency at times of stress. Fence sitters (at best) India and China are not with the West on this... at best a crack in the QUAD, a minor, destabilizing Putin victory.    Left unchallenged internally and considering the unlikelihood of NATO escalation beyond feeding weaponry into Ukraine, Putin holds the upper hand by his ability to draw this out for as long as it takes.  In the end, under the above scenario, Putin secures Crimea, the energy rich Donbas region, and a treaty certifying Ukraine's nonparticipation in NATO.  Via forcing Russians to sacrifice for the Motherland Putin defibrillates his dying culture as one distinct from the "culturally corrupt and flaccid" West and spurs a last-ditch hope for a Russian cultural/tribal revival.  Again.  I hope I am wrong but fear I'm not.
 
Putative military woke-ism.  I am not convinced by General Mattis' sanguine assessment about woke instruction in the military, having seen the damage woke thinking is doing in other American institutions...public schools, woke corporations, churches and Federal Government agencies.
Above:  Slide of Jacqueline Schneider, Fellow.  Hoover Institution Senior Retreat.  Phoenician Hotel, Scottsdale, Arizona.  22 April 2022.
Cyber risk and Cyber wargaming.  
Above:  AZ Governor Doug Ducey and meeting moderator, Hoover Institution Director, Condi Rice.  Hoover Institution Spring Retreat, Phoenician Hotel, Scottsdale, AZ.  22 April 2022.
Arizona is number one in America in school choice.  The Great Heart School, nearby, has an 11 thousand student wait list.
Arizona students pine for better education for their kids through school choice.
Arizona private schools thrived during Covid.
Arizona schools of choice thriving.  I want the parent to have the ultimate say on where their child goes to school.  
Arizona is the first state to pass a Civics Education Act.
Taiwan Semiconductor building its US facility in Arizona.  Huge project.  Sets Arizona up for decades.
Arizona State University (ASU) named by US News and World Report as the most innovative university in the world.
I'm hopeful about America's future.  But we have more work to do.  More people need to become involved in public life.  There is a coalition of cowardice out there that is getting run over by the radical left.
Above:  Peter Berkowitz, Senior Fellow.  Hoover institution Spring Retreat, Phoenician Hotel, Scottsdale, AZ.  22 April 2022.  
On new Stanford undergraduate course:  Varieties of Conservatism in America.  
Deep fissures in American conservatism having to do with what you prioritize.  
What is worth conserving?  
Social Conservatives.  Limited Government Conservatives.  To win elections, Republicans need both. 
Each conservative faction agrees to keep the government "in bounds."   Restraint, not activism; moderation, judgment and basic morals.  
Stanford student acceptance of the course is very good.  Limited seminar of fifteen students.  I believe that student interest in the course will grow.
Above:  Michael McConnel, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution Spring Retreat, Phoenician Hotel, Scottsdale, Arizona.  22 April 2022.  
Changes in the court.  
Kanji Brown Jackson.  Nice person.  Lack of diversity in the choice:  too many Harvard and Yale judges. :-)  It's hard to say how she will change the court.  There are few decisions of Jackson to evaluate.  There are too few writings.  In her testimony, she paid fealty to neutral judging.  Why no more questions from the Senators on this?  
Hearings were not very revealing.  
There will be pressure for her to be avatar for left.  If she is, she will be folk hero on the left.  Alternatively, she can make common cause with Roberts and Republican moderate, middle ground judges.  If she chooses to renounce conservatives, she'll strengthen conservative justices, pushing Roberts and Kavanaugh to the right.  
More cases are coming up:  gun rights; abortion; religion; school choice; Covid.    
Next case:  "Is football coach kneeling on fifty-yard line in post-game silent prayer OK?  
The mask ruling came down.  I don't like wearing masks, but the court's ruling was not convincing.
Above:  Slide from Justin Grimmer, Senior Fellow and David Kennedy, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution Spring Retreat, Phoenician Hotel, Scottsdale, Arizona.  22 April 2022.  
Revitalizing American Institutions.  
Trust in US institutions is in freefall.
SDT Commentary:  A Kennedy slide showed accelerated gun purchases following incidents where corporate media pushed an anti-gun or anti police narrative.  George Floyd for one.  Kennedy noted that following the coverage from the Floyd death, his daughter purchased a firearm.  Kennedy was pleased to announce, as an aside, that he talked his daughter into returning the gun.  My own view would have been, right on!  The right of citizens to own guns distinguishes the US from all other countries.  I am a gun owner and I shoot regularly, often with my sixteen-year-old grandson.   I believe that responsible gun ownership should be considered a virtue, not something to be avoided.
Above:  Tomahawk Ribeye.  Steak 44 Restaurant.  Scottsdale, AZ.  22 April 2022.   
Joined by Mezzanine, Magnolia, Betsy, Burt, Bob, Red, TIMDT and Bishop.
One of those evenings when you can't remember when you've had a better steak, only to realize that memory loss from old age means that every steak you ever eat is now the best.