Picto Diary - 23 June 2020 - Shorty's Stairs
Above: Poppies. Miners' Hospital. Park City, UT. 23 June 2020.
Avoiding the Insanity Program.
Deux Magots Walkers (Bishop 'n IBM)
Wasatch Bagel, Shorty's Steps, Sandridge Avenue, Main Street, Miners' Hospital and return. 4.7 miles.
Park City's landscapers deserve beaucoup kudos for Miners' Hospital landscaping.
Serendipitously, I encountered a city official who is a regular at LSDM at Wasatch Bagel this AM. He was midway through his own six mile walk. We joined for breakfast together outdoors and after breakfast, walked a couple of miles together before we split, him to return to his home in the Aerie and Mwah (sic) to continue my walk along the Shorty's Stairs route, above Marsac.
We discussed the Covid-19 situation. The two of us had exchanged articles and opinions over the course of the last three months.
City official said that hospital capacity should be the primary metric on how we adjust to the disease. I agree. Reports of new cases mislead and are used to stoke unnecessary fear. True, new cases will morph into a certain percentage of hospitalizations... so hospital capacity utilization is somewhat predictable. But, bad flu seasons often result in capacity issues at hospitals... we deal with them as we can... we don't stop the economy.
Current Utah hospital capacity is at 65% total and rising.
It is my contention that we should gear our lives to the fact that there will be no vaccine or therapeutic cure universally available for this disease over the next two years.
Michael Osterholm, the respected University of Minnesota epidemiologist, says we're going to have to power our way through to herd immunity at from 60% to 70% infection rate and that we can expect 1.5 million (or so) deaths as we accomplish that over, say, a five year period.
The Stanford guys, Atlas and Ionides, claim that there is a natural immunity in many people related to having powered through colds, flu and other virus related diseases during their lives... ie. they say that Osterholm's prediction is overstated. Michael Levitt of Stanford uses the Diamond Princess ship as a petri dish. On that ship, stranded in Yokohama harbor for six weeks back in March, the infection rate peaked at 20%. Of 5000 passengers, eight died, all over eighty years of age with comorbidities. Levitt posits the notion of many of us carrying natural immunities. On a US aircraft carrier where sailors were infected with Covid-19, only one of four thousand sailors died of the disease.
Whether the ultimate infection peak is 20% or 70%, I believe we have to move on. Open up. The statistical probably of dying from this disease for over ninety nine percent of our citizens is less than dying in a car accident. Because we are learning that the denominator is much bigger than first thought, mortality rates, by consensus are at 0.1%, about the level of a bad flu year.
If you think you are at inordinate risk of dying from this disease, don't go where other people congregate in mass.; don't hang near anyone who does. Lose some weight if you are fat. But, for the others, life should go on as normal.
Most Covid-19 infections occur when your are in close contact with a symptomatic carrier for an extended period.. twenty or thirty minutes. Arguments for aerosol transmission being a primary source for disease conveyance are losing strength. Less than one percent of transmissions have been determined to occur outdoors. Outdoors is good, if you are at inordinate risk of dying.
Sweden is now being teed up as an example of the success of no lock down. Sweden did adopt social distancing practices, but, they kept their economy going, kids at school, and people at work. Sweden's death rates are average for Europe. Swedes, because more have been exposed to the disease, are closer to herd (or top level, if the Stanford guys are right) immunity than citizens of countries where lockdowns have been implemented.
Hospital capacity is important... but, our hospital system may need to increase capacity to handle virus surges. This is something we are all going to have to live with. Shutting down economic activity brings with it far more serious consequences than stopping x additional virus deaths.
My city official friend believes masks might slow the infection rate and protect the hospitals from overload. If we reach hospital capacity via Covid, he says, then others in need of care will be denied it... and that is something to avoid, even to the point of re ramping up shutdown restrictions.
I don't agree about the masks. There is no evidence that mask wearing will inhibit spread of this disease, particularly outdoors. Indoors, in close proximity with others for extended periods, masks might have an effect of extending the infection cycle a few minutes or so.
My city council friend is a knowledgeable, talented, informed City government executive. I respect his opinion. But, the data show that the fear factor engendered by this disease is now grossly overstated. Covid-19 is another risk, like many risks we undertake day to day. As with flu, hospitals may need to gear up for a bad Covid-19 season, but so must life go on. Know your risk factors and live your life accordingly, as you do with any of life's myriad of risks.
Above: Shorty's Stairs. Park Ciity, UT. 23 June 2020.
Avoiding the Insanity Program
Deux Magots Walkers
Ewe kin doo it, Bishop!
I did it with, at least relatively speaking, a fair amount of ease. Yes, I am huffing and puffing at the top, but, I am not exhausted like I was in prior years when I was forty pounds heavier.
As a general rule, I'm liking the five mile plus, 500 to 700 vertical foot, walks/hikes more than ever. In the past, many times the excursion seemed like a mind over mattress challenge. Today, I'm actually looking forward to these hikes/walks.
I've learned to keep a keen eye out for wildlife and birds and while I don't score a hit on every hike, the hits are no longer rare as my eye is keener. Think of the great shot I got of the grey heron sitting on the fence at the North Forty the other day. — at shorty's stairs.
Above: Sandridge Avenue, Park City, UT. 23 June 2020.
Deux Magots Walkers
Sandridge Avenue.... first time walked this Old Town street! — in Park City, Utah.
Above: Album Cover, Saint-Saen's Organ Symphony, Pittsburgh Symphony Orchestra. 23 June 2020.
Avoiding the Insanity Program
World First.
Listened, one after the other, to four different versions of the Maestoso-Allegro (fourth movement) of Saint-Saens' Symphony No. 3 in C minor (Organ).
Pittsburgh Symphony Orchestra. Lorin Maazel
BBC Symphony Orchestra. David Goode
Utah Symphony Orchestra. Thierry Fischer
Philadelphia Symphony Orchestra. Eugene Ormandy
I have to go with the Pittsburgh. The organ solo at approximately minute three bleeds one chord into the next sans interval between the notes. The other three organists play their chords with pronounced intervals between chords. I don't know what Saint Saens intended, but, I like the Pittsburgh effect better. The magnificent, combined organ/brass chord at the end of the movement is also sustained a couple of seconds longer with a more pronounced tympanic rallentando in the Pittsburgh version. I like that better too.
Above: View from patio, Ruth's Chris Steak House. Park City, UT. 23 June 2020.
TIMDT and Mwah (sic) eatin' good in the 'hood. Outdoors!
Addendum:
Get your money's worth from taxes and jump on board. Get an electric Harley.
Tom,
Atlanta, GA
I've actually thought about it. I test drove a Zero two years ago. Range is still less than 100 miles, but, might be a novelty to use around town. I'd definitely only charge it at the free city charging station!
Hi Steve:
You wrote: "...I read only real books."
When we leaked some weeks ago the ADVENTURE MOTORCYCLIST: FRAZIER SHRUGGED book we made a decision to let it be available for a limited time only in printed form from the SOUND RIDER store. The cancelled Book Launch this Friday, in conjunction with the BMW MOA Rally (see attached poster) was to give some of the reasons: We knew there were some motorcycle adventure readers out there that liked to fondle books, fold pages and read print while contemplating printed and not digitalized words. We also recognized it's existential content, coupled with Luddite readers (like myself) had nothing to do with an inexpensive Kindle price, or as one reader has said, "You get what you pay for." While The Big Gorilla will have a digital format available, it'll not be for some time.
Best,
Dr. G,
Crow Agency,
Montana
Author/Writer/Professor of Motorcycle Adventure @ SOUND RIDER magazine
Steve,
We are very grateful for your kindnesses.
Stay safe,
Sandy,
Keene, NH