Picto Diary - 24, 25, 26, 27 April 2024 - Hoover Institution Spring Retreat, Scottsdale, AZ
The Westin Kierland Resort and Spa. Scottsdale, AZ. 24 April 2024
TIMDT and Mwah (sic) took the Sprinter from Ivins, UT to Scottsdale, AZ and back to attend the Hoover Institution annual spring retreat.
Selected SDT Speaker Notes
Kevin Hasset. Ross Levine. Amit Seru - On US Economy - Hoover Colloquium, Scottsdale, AZ. 25 April 2024.
Note: My notes. Mistakes are mine.
RL. Rise of stifling regulation. Example. FTC. New rule. Can't enforce non-competes. Government spending up more. Bigger deficits than war time. Too far in wrong direction. Next administration has big opportunity to course correct. Colossal challenge.
KH. Hoover will be ready. Economic growth critical. AI productivity spurt? More job growth from illegals. Kids inherit government debt.
AS. Deregulation and financial markets key to economic growth. New ways to manage risk and raise capital. VC. Banks. Amazon rewarded innovation and created millions of jobs. Unregulated financial markets key. US now digresses from growth spurring deregulated financial model. 2007/8 financial crisis response. Dodd-Frank. Small banks constrained by regulation. Asset bubbles. Diverting focus on climate change. Substantial part of banking system underwater. ESG disclosure burdensome... anti free market. Takes jobs. Payment tech works better out of US... what?! So, what to do? Use freeing up financial markets as a catalyst. Why not public concern? Current generation ok with central planning. Hoover needs to help reeducate. US becoming like Socialist India years ago. A cautionary tale.
RL. "Wealth of Nations," Adam Smith. Three key points.
1. Invisible hand.
2. Helping hand. Referee/enforcer.
3. Risk of grabbing hand of government and potential to overreach.
Concerned about current status. Out of hand. Growing embrace of big government. Free markets do better. Deng Xiaoping. 500 million Chinese people out of poverty using market economy, deregulated financial market principles. Yet, growing number of young Americans have negative view of market economy. 'Sup with that?
Myths:
1. Rich getting more of pie.
2. Kids won't = parents.
3. White male suicides in depth of despair.
Myths fuel anti market view. Distort understanding. Deregulation financial markets increase growth and lead to more tech innovation.
Russel Berman. Cole Bunzel. Israel and Saudi. Hoover Institution Scottsdale Retreat SDT Notes - 25 April 2024
My notes. Mistakes are mine. SDT
RB:
Israel. Optimistic.
IDF will proceed against Hamas.
Gradual takeout leadership Hamas and Hezbullah
Israel response to Iran barrage, which included cooperation from Saudi and Jordan, suggest Abraham Accords still alive.
Post Israel strike, Iran moderates. Iran pulls from Syria.
Hamas indicates susceptibility to discuss two state solution.
Long term solution. Two state solution? Israel no. Why? Oct 7. Not achievable today.
So, Israel must move forward:
1. End Hamas
2. Deradicalize Gaza and West Bank.
3. Will take time.
4. What strategy and outcomes will US accept?
Not just Israel issue. Also, a region issue. Need to push forward on Abraham Accords.
Regional trade corridor, in the interest of all parties, is important.
Why not move towards security arrangement like QUAD? India on the east and Israel on the west.
Aside: We have reached a turning point of higher education. Who funds? Declining confidence of public. For $100 thousand you
get indoctrination?
CB:
Saudi Arabia (SA)
17% of world oil reserves.
Home to two of Islam's holy sites.
SA undergoing massive social and economic change.
SA and Israel are in a DeFacto alliance against. Iran.
Vision 2030 underway. National plan to create a vibrant society, a thriving economy, and an ambitious nation.
Move to decouple from Wahhabism. Moderate Islam is the goal.
Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) driving ambitious, McKinsey aided reform plan.
Repressive authoritarianism is SA government MO. Cult of Personality around MBS.
MBS claims to seek UAE model and not Taliban model.
There is evidence of social liberalization. More movie theaters. Increased intersex socialization.
Kharis Templeman, Glenn Tiffert, Erin Baggott Carter. On Taiwan and China. Hoover Institution Scottsdale Retreat SDT Notes - 26 April 2024
Notes: Note taker is fallible. Mistakes are his.
KT: Taiwan is only issue that could draw US into war.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the world's most important company.
Taiwan. Democracy. Taiwan GDP per capita exceeds Germany.
Recent election. Subdued. Three candidates' views overlapped in the center. Campaign debates centered around domestic issues. CCP not happy with winner, William Lai, but CCP reaction muted. Lai won with only 40% of vote, a plurality. Minority president.
EBC: US and China looking for detente. China: high youth unemployment; growing repression; stock market five year low; decrease in investments. Despite reported positive GDP growth figures, 2022 and 2023 growth likely negative.
Support for regime? 50% (our own unique, reliable poll methodology). Despite suppression people still care about democracy. Discontent under the surface. Economic performance legitimacy eroding. 10% growth no longer possible. Rise in domestic challenges correlates to rising pluckiness towards US and increase blustering on imperative of reunification with Taiwan.
US needs to invest in deterrence. China belligerency designed to paper over domestic problems.
GT: No clear consensus on Taiwan status post WWII. Taiwan. US role has morphed into that of a guardian. Current Chinese belligerence re Taiwan reunification stressing US/China relationship.
Current description of US/Taiwan relationship: no treaty guarantees; rather, "strategic ambiguity." US works hard to get Taiwan to see that we care. Only twelve nations recognize Taiwan sovereignty... mostly small, island nations.
China works hard to tip middle countries in its favor. China goal: isolate US and allies. US needs to strengthen alliances but no money to pass along, no long-term planning. US depleting its own ammo stocks by supplying Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. US appearing weak on the world stage. China learns from Ukraine. US may run out of "stuff" while China builds for conflict. Path ahead: US should invest heavily in deterrence; make Taiwan like a porcupine. US needs to step up with a more positive message about its role in the world. Better use of Voice of America (VOA) for example. Internet can be suppressed but shortwave radio waves cannot be stopped.
Note: Am reminded of our visit to beleaguered Sao Tome and Principe in 2019. The most prominent feature of the island nation were the large Voice of America (VOA) radio transmitters designed to project VOA to the African continent. I asked our guide what his hope was for his country. He answered, not without irony, "we are expecting investments from China."
Rose Gottemoeller, Jim Mattis, Condoleezza Rice, 75Th Anniversary of NATO 26 April 2024 Hoover Institution Scottsdale Retreat SDT Notes - 26 April 2024
Note: Mistakes are mine. SDT
RG: DJT shocked everyone in NATO with his challenge to members to allocate 2% of their GDP to defense. Challenge was effective as many members complied.
JM: NATO. 32 allies. Post 9/11, NATO coalesces. Delivers. And it all worked. Standard agreements. Can coordinate immediately. Article 5. Attack on one is attack on all. Putin would have to be impressed.
CR: Good to have friends, but alliance has its challenges.
JM: There are disagreements amongst NATO members. UK and Canada disagree on Suez. But disagreements are always worked out. Swede and Finland bolster NATO as new members. Estonia gives Russia two years to become belligerent in Baltics. Denmark gave ammo to Ukraine. Russia as common enemy causes NATO to coalesce.
RG: Macron: Europe should not be a US vassal. Still France today, as a cooperative NATO member, is a far cry from the days of Charles DeGaulle, who, in late 1960's, took France out of the military cooperation side of NATO.
CR: We are in a challenging era. Hungary and Turkey. Two NATO members who "didn't get the memo."
JM: Magyars are a different people, but you can find common ground with them. Turks: second largest land army will be there for us. NATO. Most successful alliance in history. We can work out problems. China hates a strong NATO.
RG: Turks step up when asked. The people are behind NATO. Think of the Carnation Revolution in Portugal where the people backed a non-violent movement to democracy. There is a NATO driven ethos towards European defense shared by the people of Europe.
JM: NATO ethos: Integrated, consistent training amongst national militaries to ensure NATO wide readiness.
RG: Ukraine. Somber moment. Summit required. Can't be celebratory about current stalemate. NATO should offer Ukraine accession talks.
JM: Put Ukraine back on track to join EU. Then NATO. Ukraine is the shield of Europe.
CR: US must prepare Americans to accept Ukraine in NATO.
Above: Vermillion Cliffs, US A89, Arizona Strip. 27 April 2024.