Picto Diary - 27 March 2020 - Knitting

Above: Snowblowing. Park City, UT. 27 March 2020

I never thought I'd be doing this, this late in the season.

Above: TIMDT at Rock Cliff. 27 March 2020.

Daily three miler. Extreme physical distancing. Spousal social engagement.

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Above: TIMDT knitting. Park City, UT. 27 March 2020.

Homebound. Knitting a life saver.

Daily Summit County, UT Coronavirus analysis as of 27 MARCH 2020 by Bishop (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 1:39 PM)

110 (including 8 visitors) confirmed cases Summit County. Up 13 from yesterday. Utah cases up 78 to 480 Two Utah deaths.

Say, 10x cases, is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 1100 Summit County contagions today (10 x 110 = 1100).
Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 2.7% county contagion rate. Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%. Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 1.2% US; China 4%; Italy 9%.

Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 1.2%, based on CURRENT cases, one coronavirus death can be expected in Summit County, or .000025% of the total county population of 40 thousand.

Summit County officials warn of exponential growth of contagion, but, hope to "flatten" the growth curve via aggressive, stay at home, physical distancing policies.