Picto Diary - 28, 29, 30, 31 December 2020 - Year End Closing Thoughts... Coronavirus and Reflections on 2020

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Above: Deer Valley. 28 December 2020

Above: Carpenter Lift. Deer Valley, UT. 29 December 2020.
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For a daily skier, long lift lines are a depressing sight. I left early to avoid the hoards.

This image is encouraging, however, if you are wearing a business man's hat.

I have plenty of slow customer days during the year to ski sans waiting in lift lines. Glad to see Deer Valley doing well.

I'd expect local government officials are in a "so far so good" state of mind.

No Picto Diary Entry for 30 December 2020.

Above: Home. Iron Canyon. Park City, UT. 31 December 2020

Freddie holds court on the deck. Barks at other dogs and passers by. Protecting the home. That's his job.

Very nice New Year's Eve dinner closing out a great year (scroll) at Goldner Hirsh, Deer Valley with 'Cake and Maui.

Year End Closing Thoughts.... Coronavirus and Reflections on 2020

Coronavirus

The Numbers
The current (28 December 2020) US coronavirus case fatality rate is 1.7% (344 thousand deaths divided by 19.8 million cases).

No serious attempt has been made to ascertain whether "cases," as reported by CDC, is indicative of the true spread of the disease. This is important because of the likely high number of people who have had the virus, have experienced low or no symptoms, and have not been tested.

The spread of the disease is likely significant, far outpacing the flu. Summit County, UT health director, Rich Bullough, back in March 2020, estimated, that there were as many as 10x carriers of the virus than those "cases" being reported. Lets assume that the number of actual cases in the US today is 5x reported cases, or (5 x 19.8) 100 million (round off!) "adjusted cases." Under the 5x assumption, the new "adjusted case fatality rate" is 0.034% (344K/100MM).

A recent Ionnedes (Stanford) study found that the median case fatality rate for the flu was 0.025%. Mortality rates for the flu and for coronavirus appear to be in the same ball park. Certainly, we can say that coronavirus is not the Black Plague, where a third of the population of Eurasia died of the disease between 1347 and 1351. Nor, as a pandemic, does coronavirus have the mortality impact of the Spanish Flu, where nearly 700 thousand Americans died in 1918, on half the US population base of today. Adjusted for differences in population, the Spanish flu had 4x the mortality rate of coronavirus. There are 4x more coronavirus deaths than the flu in 2019 because of coronavirus' far more rapid contagion rate. Notwithstanding, the mortality rates of flu and coronavirus remain comparable. New vaccines are expected by many to suppress the high coronavirus contagion rate, but some epidemiologists, notably, University of Minnesota's Michael Osterholm, say that the virus contagion will continue to be virulent until 90% of the population are either rendered immune from the having disease or the vaccine.... and that could take up to three another years.

There is good reason to believe that US coronavirus deaths are overstated. A recent Princeton study noted that, overall, the US death rate in 2020 is unchanged. That is, Coronavirus deaths have been offset by decreases in all other categories. Really?

The age distribution of deaths for coronavirus is telling. Virtually no children under the age of 16 have died of the disease. Conversely, 60% of US reported coronavirus deaths have been over 80 years of age AND with at least one comorbidity. So, you may be more likely to catch coronavirus than the flu this year, but, if you are not aged and health impaired, you are less likely to die from coronavirus than you are the flu..

Public Policy Response Disaster
For a disease in the same lethality ball park as the flu, shutting down economies, and closing schools, as has been done, will be seen as a major blunder by disinterested future historians (or a major win for those seeking to centralize power and erode individual freedom in America). The damages of shut down are now beginning to appear. A Stanford study (Bhattacharya) has predicted 130 million, worldwide, will die from hunger because of coronavirus shutdowns. 130 million starvation deaths (or even half that!) far exceeds the current 1.8 million world wide coronavirus deaths.

The costs of a majority of American kids missing a full year "attending" school are only now being tabulated, and the tally doesn't look good.

There are a myriad of other areas where the lock down cure will have been seen to be worse than the disease.... broken families, lost employment, mental illness, suicide etc.

It is now clear that a public policy strategy to keep economies moving, and kids in school, while protecting the most vulnerable, would have resulted in a more successful transition for far more people through the disease period.

My heart goes out to the many millions whose lives around the world that have been needlessly ended or truncated by the errors, venal or unwitting, of government policy makers in their misguided efforts to deal with the effects of the disease.

On Masks
Back in March, before the mask issue was bruited, I could see the mask discussion coming. I wrote, then, that it would be a travesty to mandate mask wearing in the US. Without a scientifically proven, compelling reason to wear masks, the social consequences of mandated mask wearing would be devastating.

One of the reasons I could never be a Democrat is their denial of science across multiple fronts. Forced mask wearing is a good example of faux science perpetrated by the left. We now have a society where everyone looks like a bank robber... where shaming Karens rush to out their non mask wearing neighbors, and where public identification, long a standard of a free and open society, is impeded.. all with no real evidence of mask wearing efficacy.

In my personal behavior I don't fight the mask mandates. But, I avoid going to places where they are required, so most of the time I am not wearing a mask.

Thank goodness for Amazon.com, of which I have, over the last nine months, become a big user.

Exceptions to not wearing a mask are while skiing and at restaurants. In both cases, the masks are not required when engaged in actual skiing or eating... which is most of the time for me when participating in those activities. TIMDT and Mwah (sic) have been frequent restaurant goers during those times of the year when they have been open.

No, I don't regret not supporting retail establishments where masks are required. I am very disappointed with the lack of push back by retailers against draconian, overweening, unnecessary government controls. I feel the same about churches, where, with a few exceptions (NYC Hasidic Jews, Billy Graham, Jr., and certain US Catholic archbishops), like the retailers, they, sadly, roll over to anti constitutional government mandates sans pushback.

Reflections on 2020

A year of discovery
Together with TIMDT, visited some new places.... Amritsar, India, Kohima, India, Lucknow, India, Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, Echo, UT, Rockport, UT, Wanship, UT, Helper, UT, Glenwood Springs, CO (via Amtrak), Albuquerque NM, Fort Craig, NM, Marfa, TX, and Salem, AR.

8000 motorcycle miles throughout all western states (including two trips with TIMDT at pillion). Among others visited Thermopolis Hot Springs, WY, Echo Park, CO, Mt. Shasta, CA, Grand Canyon National Park, AZ, Monument Valley, UT, and Capitol Reef National Park, UT.

Drove a new Sprinter Class B RV to Arkansas and back (via CO, NM, TX, OK to Utah to visit family and pick up a new Newfoundland dog, Freddie. En route, inured with fascinating Joe Rogan and Eric Weinstein (The Portal) podcasts.

A year of learning.
Coffee group I founded fifteen years ago, La Societe Deux Magots (LSDM), ramps up, in 2020, some fifty early AM speakers over Zoom.... including Peter Thiel, Jon Huntsman, Yale Classicist, Donald Kagan, and thriller all star writer, Jack Carr. Fifteen years of speaker notes are archived at www.lsdm-parkcity.com Success of the effort would not have been possible sans efforts of F16 who built and manages our communications infrastructure, and regular participants, who are the source of most of our speakers.

Twenty books read, including the two most impactful:

"The Anarchy - The East India Company, Corporate violence, and the Pillage of an Empire" William Dalrymple - 397 Pages

"The Glass Cage" - Nicholas Carr - 232 pages

A year of events

Duchesne County, UT Fair

Speed Week Bonneville Salt Flats, UT

Country Music Night, Cody, WY

Brazilian Moods Concert, Murray, UT

A year of fitness

Ninety six 2020 ski dates. 3 plus miles walking, most days, when not skiing.

A year of family and friends

Soccer grandparents. We enjoyed frequent interaction with our grandchildren.

Motorcycle trips incorporating friend visits: Missoula, MT, Hatch UT, Ashland, OR, Salina, UT.

Picnics with family and friends: Rockport, UT, Echo, UT, Chalk Creek, UT, Evanston, WY.

Fall Sprinter Visit, Salem, Black Rock, Imboden, and Truman, AR (visit TiMDT relatives).

Thanksgiving in St. George, UT with Jake Taylor family.

Christmas, Park City, UT. Christmas eve with Jim Hailey and Jake Taylor families and four dogs: Tucker, Daphne, Rex, and Freddie.

A year of service

Board Member, Utah 1033 foundation. Volunteer organist, LDS Church. Hoover Council, Hoover Institution. Financial support various charitable organizations.

Much to be thankful for 2020.... fingers crossed for another great year of discovery, growth and family in 2021.