Picto Diary - 28 March 2020 - Homebound. PE with Joe

Above: Homebound. PE with Joe. 28 March 2020.

Above: Lingering winter. 28 March 2020.

Above: Wanship Dam. 28 March 2020.

Daily Three Miler. Extreme physical distancing.....er...from cows. Nobody here.

Above: Out and about on the Duc. Rockport State Park. 28 March 2020.

DAILY SUMMIT COUNTY, UT CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS (SDT) as of Saturday, 28 MARCH 2020 (Coronavirus.Utah.Gov. 2:20 PM)

127 (including 8 visitors) confirmed cases Summit County. Up 17 (15%) from yesterday. Utah cases up 122 (25%) to 602. Two Utah deaths (no change from yesterday).

Say, 10x cases, is real Summit County number of contagions if all were tested. Means hypothetical 1270 Summit County contagions today (10 x 127 = 1270).

Summit County population 40K. So, to date, estimate 3.2% county contagion rate. Diamond Princess had a 20% contagion rate. High estimates (Europe) for expected contagion rates are 50%. Current mortality rates vary widely from locale to locale: 1.2% US; China 4%; Italy 9%.

Extrapolating current US mortality rate of 1.2%, based on CURRENT cases, 1.5 coronavirus deaths can be expected in Summit County, or .0000375% of the total Summit County population of 40 thousand.

Summit County officials warn of exponential growth of contagion, but, hope to "flatten" the growth curve via aggressive, stay at home, physical distancing policies. Lack of exponential growth in current Summit County numbers could be a function of lagging testing, success of the Country's disease suppression strategy, or a combination of both.