Picto Diary - 30 April 2017 - Dubai

Above: Entering Dubai Port, circa 1:00 PM on the Seven Seas Voyager. 11th deck observation lounge. Dubai. 30 April 2017.

Burj Khalifa seen through the haze.

For both of us, this is our third trip to Dubai.

We came in 1976 to visit David and Diane, who were working in Dubai for First National Bank of Chicago. I remember the visit as the hottest that I've ever felt. Opening the door to leave their home it felt like opening the door to an oven. Today will be the same. 102 degrees. Humidity 90%.

Our second visit was also on a cruise. 2012. Seabourn. From Athens to Singapore.

In 2012 we went to the top of the Burj... and saw as much of the Dubai Mall as was possible.

The Burj Khalifa only lets you go to their observation lounge on about the 148th floor.. out of 180 floors. Notwithstanding, the visit was worth it just to ride the speedy elevators (there are over 60 of them) and to see the view. No sewer connection (at least then) at the Burj. Sewage is trucked out daily. Then, the sewage solution gave a Potemkin Village impression about the city. I finished Massie's biography of Catherine the Great last year and found out that Potemkin has been misjudged by history. So, maybe, I misjudge Dubai's durability today.

The Dubai Mall was otherworldly in size and scope. If you are a watch junkie, even exclusive, niche brand Swiss watch makers have their own stores: Ulysse Nardin, for one. I own a Ulysse Nardin which I wear only occasionally. My current watch of choice is an automatic HMT made in India. HMT went out of business last year. I bought the HMT for about $200 in a walk-up store in Pondicherry two years ago. It keeps excellent time! I'm wearing the HMT on this cruise.

Above: Bishop observes Jamaira Mosque. Dubai. 30 April 2017.

Today, we joined the ship's bus tour.

Above: TIMDT observes Burj al Arab. Dubai. 30 April 2017.

Billed as "Seven Star" hotel.

Above: TIMDT enters Dubai Museum. Dubai. 30 April 2017.

Most of the museum is underground. Informative on the transition, in fifty short years from a primitive, Bedouin desert and fishing culture to a state of the art, modern metropolis. A bit claustrophobic for me, particularly considering there were several bus loads of Regent cruise customers in the museum at the same time. TIMDT said that Regent, who otherwise seemed to do a pretty good job staggering customers around its destination, could have done a better job here.

Seven sheikhs got together in the 70's and said... "what are we going to do with all this oil money?" They formed a federation, called it United Arab Emirates, and turned their desert into a modern metropolis. That there is nothing over 50 years old in Dubai, which really differentiates Dubai from other cities of its size. Beautiful roadways with beautifully landscaped, green medians. Glass sky scrapers, all uniquely and creatively sculpted. Terrific beaches on the Persian Gulf... with separate women's and men's sections. Mind boggling malls and shopping centers. How many Rolex stores does one mall need?

Like Turkey, Malaysia, and Indonesia, Dubai/UAE seems to be another example of Islam and modernism reaching accommodation. Still, its a bit jarring to see scantily clad women and women in full hijab walking on the same streets... in the malls etc. You wonder if this seeming culture clash can be/will be sustained.

Lower oil prices have put pressure on UAE revenues. The Emirates, which now has no income taxes, are under pressure by the World Bank to start taxing income or introduce VAT. Our tour guide said that UAE rulers are repositioning their economies to reduced dependence on oil. Dubai, she said, now only has a 1% direct dependence on oil, having transformed itself into a major tourist, cultural and trading center. Neighboring Abu Dhabi is where all the oil is. Notwithstanding Dubai's claimed distancing from the oil economy, should neighboring, oil rich, Abu Dhabi suffer, Dubai would certainly feel the effects.

Above: TIMDT at the Dubai Gold Souk. Dubai. 30 April 2017.

Above: TIMDT at the Dubai Gold Souk. Dubai, 30 April 2017.

We visited the gold souk in the '70's. Its one of the few recognizable links between our visit then, and today's visit.

Above: Boat across Dubai Creek to the Gold Souk. Dubai. 30 April 2017.

Squint. Venice.

Above: Carrefour store. Dubai. 30 April 2017.

Image captured from a moving bus. Didn't go in.

Carrefour shows prescience in locating in Dubai. Most of the new consumers of the world over the next 20 years will come from below the 35th parallel.... UAE, India, Indonesia, China, Nigeria etc.

Within the last 18 months I read Ram Charan's "Global Tilt" where Charan affirms that large corporations which don't do business in the new emerging economies (below the 35th parallel) will lose out. You won't, Charan points out, be able to grow in the West as economic growth potential there has stalled out. The ultimate point of Charan's book is that the new emerging economies have different business practices and that new entrants must pay a lot of attention to understanding business outside of their home markets.

I read an article today about the ten US retailers about to go out of business. The article added grist to Charan's hypothesis. Stalling US growth in retailing is starting to winnow out many retailing chains. You can't make it in the US, which is growing at less than 2% per year. You have to go to markets that are growing at 6% to 8% a year.... India, Indonesia, China.... if you want to survive.

I used to wonder how such French companies as Carrefour, Michelin etc. had such good growth records and robust P and L's when they were based in economically sluggish France. Duh! They have been successful in growing their businesses in the "south..." where the new consumers are! I wonder if Charan was on their consulting team?

Target, with which I once had an affiliation as a director of one of their subsidiary banks, will have to learn Charan's lesson to survive. They tried to expand in Canada in recent years, but failed, taking some significant write-offs as they pulled out. They're going to have to try to reach "southern" customers if they want to keep up their growth.

Addendum:

News from the home front!

Tonight was Lego night at the Bees baseball game. We told the kids we would take them but in late afternoon, Zach made some choices that resulted in him losing the privilege of going to the game. He was really upset. After Jake left with the other two kids he told me he was going to walk to the game and walked out the door. I grabbed my coat and locked the house and started following him thinking he would go a few blocks and then turn back. But he didn't. He kept going and I walked along giving him directions. At one point he told me he wouldn't give up even after I told him how long it would take and how far it was. He was determined and walked the entire 3.8 miles to the ballpark. It took him almost an hour and a half. I couldn't believe it. Portland