Putin is Winning
My take. Putin is "winning" if only by having secured Ukraine territory in Donbas. The current stalemate will test the West's resolve to suffer ongoing energy deprivation and economic damage while simultaneously upping the effort to remove Russia from Ukraine. Similarly, how much toughness does Putin and Russia possess to sustain a long-drawn-out effort to consolidate Russian gains? At this point, only a full-scale NATO offensive will be capable of restoring Ukraine's original borders. We know from Kenny Rogers poker treatise, that "every hand's a winner, and every hand's a loser." Putin, with a bad hand, has, so far, played his hand well. Putin seeks to galvanize and revive Russia's moribund culture through a demanding, sacrificial, nationalistic themed military effort which counters the current cultural decline of the flaccid and decadent West (at least as Putin perceives it). With China and India buying Russian gas, and by restricting gas supplies to Europe, Russia's foreign currency surplus and the ruble are at all-time highs. If Russia can sustain its staying power, Putin still has a shot at winning the hand of the poker game he initiated.